601
AXNT20 KNHC 251645
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON MAY 25 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 34.5W FROM 11N
SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN FROM 01S TO 05N BETWEEN 33.5W
AND 38W.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 67W FROM 14.5N
SOUTHWARD ACROSS VENEZUELA, AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS EVIDENT SOUTH OF 15N.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16.5W, THEN CURVES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N22W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N22W TO 03N32W,
THEN RESUMES FROM 03N37W TO 02N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 05N TO 10N WEST OF 21W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 00N TO 48W BETWEEN 38W AND 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A MODEST SURFACE RIDGE RUNS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM WESTERN ATLANTIC
TO THE EASTERN GULF. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF. MEANWHILE AT THE UPPER LEVEL, A PRONOUNCED
TROUGH IS QUASI- STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF.
DIVERGENT WINDS EAST OF THIS UPPER TROUGH IS COUPLING WITH THE
MOISTURE TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF, INCLUDING
THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FOUND
AT THE EAST- CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE E
TO SE WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF, EXCEPT LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE WESTERN GULF, LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SUSTAIN MAINLY MODERATE
E TO SE WINDS THROUGH THU. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FRESH WINDS OFF
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN AND AT THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON WED NIGHT. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD CONTINUE TO
COUPLE WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST WED
MORNING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LIMITED VISIBILITY, AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.
MARINERS ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
CONVERGENT TRADE WINDS ARE TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL, SOUTHWESTERN
CUBA ACROSS THE LEE OF CUBA TO OVER SOUTHEASTERN HISPANIOLA.
OTHERWISE, A ROBUST TRADE-WIND REGIME CONTINUES WITH STRONG NE TO
E WINDS AND 9 TO 12 FT SEAS AT THE SOUTH- CENTRAL BASIN. FRESH TO
STRONG E WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT DOMINATE THE NORTH- CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN BASIN. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS
AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT ARE NOTED AT THE SOUTHEASTERN AND PART OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS WITH 4 TO 6 FT
SEAS ARE EVIDENT AT THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO
ESE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITH ROUGH SEAS INTO THU NIGHT THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE
TO NEAR- GALE FORCE OFF BARRANQUILLA, COLOMBIA, DURING NIGHT-TIME
AND MORNING HOURS THROUGH WED NIGHT. IN ADDITION, TRADES IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS WILL REACH FRESH TO STRONG EACH EVENING THROUGH
THE SAME PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THU.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AIDED BY MODEST DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT, CONVERGENT TRADES ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES. REFER TO
THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN.
A COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM WEST OF THE AZORES ACROSS
31N38.5W TO 26N55W, THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO 30N62W. FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS AND 7 TO 9 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT NEAR AND BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ARE NOTED FROM
20N TO 26N AND WEST OF 55W, INCLUDING THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK. IN
THIS AREA, SEAS RANGE FROM 6 TO 9 FT EAST OF 76W, AND 3 TO 6 FT
WEST OF 76W. NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 57W, MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH E TO SE WINDS ALONG WITH 4 T 6 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT,
INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. TO THE EAST, A BROAD
ATLANTIC RIDGE IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS AT 3
TO 5 FT NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE COLD FRONT. FOR THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 05N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE
SEEN. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W, GENTLE
TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED MODERATE
SWELLS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS WATERS SOUTH OF 25N THROUGH
WED, INCLUDING THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK AS A STRONGER ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN WED, IT SHOULD ALLOW WINDS
AND SEAS TO DIMINISH FROM EAST TO WEST. THE WESTERN PART OF A COLD
FRONT NEAR 29N57W WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH TO NEAR 25N56W BY
TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING ON TUE. FRESH NE WINDS ALONG
WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TUE.
KRV
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