441
AXNT20 KNHC 252230
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC MON MAY 25 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2200 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 37W FROM 11N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
EVIDENT AT THIS TIME.
AN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 68W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD
ACROSS WESTERN VENEZUELA, AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM
14N TO 16N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W, THEN CURVES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N25W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N25W TO 04N35W,
THEN RESUMES FROM 02N41W TO 02N49W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
EVIDENT AT THIS TIME.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SHARP MID/UPPER TROUGH REACHES FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF. FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS ARE LIKELY NEAR THESE THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS
FROM NORTH- CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO FLORIDA, SUPPORTING FRESH SE WINDS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS, AND MODERATE SE WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WHERE SEAS ARE 3-5 FT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF IS SUPPORTING LIGHT
TO GENTLE BREEZES WITH 1-3 FT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS THROUGH THU. THE EXCEPTION WILL
EVENING PULSES OF FRESH WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN. AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD CONTINUE TO COUPLE
WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST WED. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, LIMITED VISIBILITY, AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. MARINERS
ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DUE TO DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHARP MID/UPPER TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THIS AREA.
ELSEWHERE, OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE, NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS ACTIVE AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE BASIN. STRONG RIDGING OVER THE
ATLANTIC ALONG WITH LOWER PRESSURE FAR SOUTH OVER COLOMBIA IS
ALTOGETHER SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE OFF THE
COAST OF CENTRAL COLOMBIA. MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 7-10 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AND 4-7 FT
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THU NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE TO NEAR- GALE FORCE OFF BARRANQUILLA, COLOMBIA,
DURING NIGHT-TIME AND MORNING HOURS INTO THU. TRADES IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS WILL REACH FRESH TO STRONG EACH EVENING THROUGH THE
SAME PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH- CENTRAL BASIN THIS EVENING, THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THU.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM WEST OF THE AZORES ACROSS
31N38W TO 26N55W, THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO 30N63W. FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS AND 7 TO 9 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT NEAR AND BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH, FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS
AND 7-9 FT SEAS ARE ACTIVE FROM 15N TO 27N AND WEST OF 55W INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
AND 5-7 FT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 18N. GENTLE BREEZES AND
4-6 FT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS WATERS SOUTH OF 25N THROUGH
WED, INCLUDING THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK, AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS THE
HIGH WEAKENS WED NIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH. A COLD FRONT
FROM 25N55W TO 25N60W WILL SLIDE SE TONIGHT AND OUT OF THE REGION
BY TUE. FRESH NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS N OF IT WILL DIMINISH TUE.
CHRISTENSEN
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