971
AXNT20 KNHC 261058
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE MAY 26 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 39W FROM 11N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS SEEN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN 35W AND 43W.
AN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 71W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD
ACROSS WESTERN VENEZUELA AND CENTRAL-EASTERN COLOMBIA. IT IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS EVIDENT NEAR THE VENEZUELA-COLOMBIA BORDER.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE MAURITANIA COAST
NORTH OF NOUAKCHOTT, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N21W. AN ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 07N21W TO 03N36W, THEN RESUMES FROM 01N43W TO
NEAR THE AMAZON RIVER DELTA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS SEEN NEAR AND UP TO 170 NM NORTH OF BOTH ITCZ SEGMENTS.
CONVERGENT SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON
TROUGH ARE TRIGGERING NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR PANAMA AND
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A DEEP MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REACHES SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN
TEXAS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, PROVIDING
STRONG DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND PART OF THE EASTERN
GULF. ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED BY SURFACE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL AND PART OF
THE EASTERN GULF. FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY NEAR THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
THROUGH FLORIDA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS WITH 3
TO 6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL
FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL SUSTAIN GENTLE TO
MODERATE SE TO S WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
EVENING PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
THROUGH THU NIGHT. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
WED NIGHT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LIMITED VISIBILITY, AND LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE SOUTHEASTERN END OF A PRONOUNCED MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
ENHANCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN. CONVERGENT TRADES ARE PRODUCING SIMILAR
WEATHER BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA, AND ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN BASIN, INCLUDING WATERS NEAR HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO. STRONG TO NEAR- GALE E WINDS WITH SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FT ARE
PRESENT AT THE SOUTH- CENTRAL BASIN, WHILE FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS
AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE AT THE NORTH- CENTRAL BASIN. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT ARE NOTED AT THE LEE
OF CUBA, SOUTH OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND NEAR COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO ESE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THU NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO
NEAR- GALE FORCE OFF BARRANQUILLA, COLOMBIA, DURING NIGHT-TIME
AND MORNING HOURS INTO THU. TRADES IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND
JUST NORTH OF JAMAICA WILL REACH FRESH TO STRONG EACH EVENING
THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD. BY FRI, MOST OF THE BASIN SHOULD
EXPERIENCE MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS,
EXCEPT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN IN WHICH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS 31N34W TO 24N45W, THEN CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTARD AS A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N53W TO 29N64W. PATCHY SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT
NEAR AND UP TO 80 NM NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. REFER TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS AT THE TOP FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS WITH 7 TO 9 FT SEAS ARE NOTED
NORTH OF THE COLD/STATIONARY FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH, GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT ARE FOUND FROM 20N TO
THE COLD/STATIONARY FRONT BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. TO THE WEST,
GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE PRESENT
NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 60W AND THE FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST.
FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS ALONG WITH 6 TO 9 FT SEAS DOMINATE
FROM 20N TO 25N AND WEST OF 60W, INCLUDING THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK.
FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 05N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO
8 FT ARE SEEN. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS
IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC
BASIN WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS WATERS SOUTH OF 25N AND WEST
OF 60W THROUGH WED, INCLUDING THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK, AS THE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD, TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS WED NIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH FROM EAST TO WEST. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM
25N53W TO 29N64W WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF IT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
CHAN
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