231
AXNT20 KNHC 261605
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE MAY 26 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1555 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 40W, SOUTH OF 11N, AND
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT SOUTH OF 08N AND BETWEEN 32W AND 45W.
AN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 72W, SOUTH OF 15N, AND
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE
TROUGH AXIS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N24W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N24W TO 04N39W AND THEN FROM 04N41W TO 03N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED SOUTH OF 08N AND EAST OF
30W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTHWARD RESULT IN SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NOTED IN THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTS MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE GULF, EAST OF
90W. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SUSTAIN GENTLE TO
MODERATE SE TO S WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
EVENING PULSES OF FRESH OFF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN THROUGH THU
NIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF SHOULD
CONTINUE TO COUPLE WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF INTO THU. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LIMITED VISIBILITY, AND
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH
THE LATEST FORECAST.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE SOUTHEASTERN END OF A PRONOUNCED MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. CONVERGENT TRADES ARE PRODUCING SIMILAR
WEATHER BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA, AND ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN BASIN, INCLUDING WATERS NEAR HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FOUND
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN, ESPECIALLY OFF PANAMA.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES STRONG TO NEAR-GALE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS. EASTERLY SWELL IS CAUSING ROUGH
SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATER PASSAGES OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH ROUGH
SEAS INTO FRI. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO NEAR- GALE
FORCE OFF BARRANQUILLA, COLOMBIA, DURING NIGHT-TIME AND MORNING
HOURS THROUGH THU. TRADES IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL REACH
FRESH TO STRONG EACH EVENING THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD. BY FRI, MOST
OF THE BASIN SHOULD EXPERIENCE MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT THE SOUTH- CENTRAL BASIN IN WHICH FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N31W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 25N40W, FOLLOWED BY A STATIONARY FRONT
TO 26N64W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-9 FT ARE NOTED BEHIND THE
FRONTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN
THE DEEP TROPICS SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 27N74W TO 19N60W. MEANWHILE,
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-8 FT ARE OCCURRING
SOUTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 30W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS WATERS SOUTH OF 25N AND WEST
OF 60W THROUGH WED, INCLUDING THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK, AS THE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD, TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS WED NIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH FROM EAST TO WEST. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM
25N53W TO 29N64W WILL DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. ROUGH SEAS NORTH
OF IT WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT.
DELGADO
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