217
AXNT20 KNHC 270007
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED MAY 27 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 45W SOUTH OF
12N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF THE WAVE FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 01N AND FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 42W-45W.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 73W SOUTH OF
15N TO INLAND SOUTH AMERICA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W, AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N25W,
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 04N34W, WHERE IT BRIEFLY
PAUSES. IT RESUMES AT 04N46W TO THE NE COAST OF SURINAME NEAR
04N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 26W-29W AND WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 31W-34W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
THE RATHER WEAK WESTERN EXTENSION OF CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND TO
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. THE RELATED WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS GENERALLY ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ALONG
WITH MODERATE SEAS E OF 90W, AND FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS W OF 90W.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ATTRIBUTED TO A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, AND
WHILE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING PULLED NORTHWARD FROM
THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 83W-91W, INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA, AND THE SE GULF WATERS TO ALONG
THE COAST OF CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE E OF 91W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SUSTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE EVENING PULSES OF FRESH OFF THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN THROUGH THU NIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF SHOULD CONTINUE TO COUPLE WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH THU.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.
MARINERS ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE TO ITS SOUTH RELATED TO
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN S AMERICA HAS CREATED A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN. THIS IS
INDUCING STRONG TO NEAR-GALE TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ALONG
WITH MODERATE SEAS ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF
HONDURAS. LONG-PERIOD E SWELL IS CREATING ROUGH SEAS IN THE
ATLANTIC WATER PASSAGES OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A WELL PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WATERS ADJACENT TO THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS INLAND OVER SOME SECTIONS OF CUBA, AND OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 14N AND W OF 78W. THIS ACTIVITY
EXTENDS TO INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE N OF 18N AND W OF JAMAICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH ROUGH SEAS
THROUGH FRI. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO NEAR-GALE FORCE
OFF BARRANQUILLA, COLOMBIA, DURING NIGHT-TIME AND MORNING HOURS
THROUGH THU. TRADES IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL REACH FRESH TO
STRONG EACH EVENING THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD. BY FRI NIGHT, MOST
OF THE BASIN SHOULD EXPERIENCE MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT THE SOUTH- CENTRAL BASIN IN WHICH FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 31N29W SOUTHWESTWARD TO
26N36W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO 24N45W, THEN EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD TO WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OF 1023 MB AT 26N55W AND TO 26N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND
SEAS OF 6-9 FT ARE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AND STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS SUSTAINING FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 27N74W TO 19N60W.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF ABOUT
6-8 FT ARE SOUTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 30W, AND MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS WATERS SOUTH OF 25N
AND WEST OF 60W THROUGH WED, INCLUDING THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK, AS
THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD, TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS WED NIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH FROM EAST TO WEST.
AGUIRRE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page