084
AXNT20 KNHC 271029
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED MAY 27 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS 46W FROM 11N SOUTHWARD, AND
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN FROM
04N TO 06N BETWEEN 45W AND 48W.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 75W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD
ACROSS WESTERN COLOMBIA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT.
IT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF
MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL, THEN RUNS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N25W. AN
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N25W TO 03N43W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH FROM 02N TO 09N EAST OF 19W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN UP TO 100 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR EASTERN PANAMA AND NORTHWESTERN
COLOMBIA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ATTRIBUTED TO A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH,
COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE PULLED NORTHWARD FROM
THE CARIBBEAN, RESULTS IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF 28N AND E OF 91W. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE BASIN, WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A SQUALL LINE IS GOING TO PRODUCE HEAVY
SHOWERS, DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND STRONG TO NEAR-GALE W WINDS ALONG
WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SUSTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH
LOCALLY FRESH SE TO S WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE EVENING PULSES OF FRESH WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
THROUGH THU NIGHT. AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
SHOULD CONTINUE TO COUPLE WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH THU. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LIMITED
VISIBILITY, AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO KEEP UP
TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE TO ITS SOUTH RELATED TO LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN S AMERICA HAS CREATED A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN. THIS IS INDUCING STRONG TO NEAR-
GALE TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS
ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS. LONG-PERIOD E
SWELL IS CREATING ROUGH SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATER PASSAGES OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A WELL PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WATERS ADJACENT TO THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS INLAND OVER SOME SECTIONS OF CUBA, AND OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 14N AND W OF 78W. THIS ACTIVITY
EXTENDS TO INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THU. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO NEAR-
GALE FORCE OFF BARRANQUILLA, COLOMBIA TONIGHT THROUGH THU
MORNING. TRADES IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND JUST NORTH OF JAMAICA
WILL REACH FRESH TO STRONG THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.
BY FRI NIGHT, MOST OF THE BASIN SHOULD EXPERIENCE MODERATE WITH
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
BASIN IN WHICH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 31N28W SOUTHWESTWARD TO
28N30W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N37W. TO
THE W OF THE FRONT, A 1023 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 26N55W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AND
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS SUSTAINING FRESH TO STRONG E
TO SE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS SOUTH S OF 25N BETWEEN 67W-74W. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 6-8 FT
ARE SOUTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 30W, AND MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS WATERS SOUTH OF 25N AND WEST
OF 68W THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, INCLUDING THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK,
AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD, TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS HIGH IS GOING TO WEAKEN TONIGHT, ALLOWING
WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM
25N35W TO 24N40W WILL BE GONE LATER THIS MORNING. IN THE LONGER
TERM, TWO COLD FRONTS PASSING ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC MIGHT
CAUSE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS NORTH OF 28N AND EAST OF 70W FROM
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI, AND AGAIN FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN.
CHAN
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