586
AXNT20 KNHC 271627
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED MAY 27 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1555 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ALONG 35W, SOUTH OF 15N, BASED
ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY, TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA AND
TROPICAL WAVE DIAGNOSTICS. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS THAT IS SUPPRESSING
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W, SOUTH OF 11N, AND
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE SEEN NEAR THE
TROUGH AXIS.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W, SOUTH OF 15N, AND
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. IT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE
EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N22W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N22W TO 04N34W AND THEN FROM 04N36W TO
02N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING SOUTH OF 10N
AND EAST OF 22W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 36W AND 47W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ATTRIBUTED TO A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH,
COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE PULLED NORTHWARD FROM THE
CARIBBEAN, RESULTS IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NW AND EASTERN GULF. A SQUALL LINE IS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE
NW GULF WATERS, PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED TO USE CAUTION. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK GRADIENT PREVAILS
SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, VERY ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE GULF TODAY, WITH ONE SQUALL LINE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE SW LOUISIANA COAST AND A SECOND MOVING
OFFSHORE OF SOUTH TEXAS. EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, WIND GUSTS TO GALE- FORCE AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COASTS, AND WILL
SUSTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE TO S WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EVENING PULSES OF FRESH WINDS OFF
THE NORTHERN YUCATAN THROUGH THU NIGHT. AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF SHOULD CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH THU.
MARINERS ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS FORCES FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS
CAPTURED WINDS TO 31 KT. LATEST ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS SHOWED
SEAS UP TO 13 FT OFF NW COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE. THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A WELL PRONOUNCED UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL,
WESTERN CUBA AND NEARBY WATERS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS NOTED OFF NICARAGUA AND PANAMA, WHILE WEAK, LIGHT
SHOWERS TRAVEL THROUGH THE BASIN IN THE TRADES.
FOR THE FORECAST, TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A 1006 MB COLOMBIAN LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO
NEAR-GALE FORCE OFF NW COLOMBIA TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING.
TRADES IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND JUST NORTH OF JAMAICA WILL
REACH FRESH TO STRONG THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. BY
FRI NIGHT, THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E AND WEAKEN, LEAVING MOST OF THE
BASIN WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS,
EXCEPT THE SOUTH- CENTRAL BASIN, WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N23W TO 26N30W, FOLLOWED BY
A SURFACE TROUGH TO 24N48W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT COVERS MUCH
OF THE BASIN ALONG 30N. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE RIDGE,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 35W AND SOUTH OF 25N AND EAST
OF 35W. ALSO, SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NE
FLORIDA TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS E TO W
ALONG 29N-30N TODAY AND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS SOUTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 68W THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
INCLUDING THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK, AS RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD.
THIS HIGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT, ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO
BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 30N48W TO
26N70W WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. IN THE LONGER TERM, TWO COLD FRONTS
SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS NORTH OF 28N AND EAST OF 70W
FROM THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI, AND AGAIN FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN.
DELGADO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page