959
AXNT20 KNHC 281053
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC THU MAY 28 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 40W FROM 14N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS SEEN FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 38W AND 43W.
ANOTHER CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 52W FROM 11N TO
SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 50W AND 61W,
INCLUDING FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME.
A SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 78W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN PANAMA INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. IT IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE IS MENTIONED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE SENEGAL COAST
NEAR DAKAR, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N24W. AN ITCZ
CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 03N24W TO 01N37W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 03N TO 10N
EAST OF 17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NORTH
OF THE ITCZ FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 25W AND 37W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IS
COMBINING WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS AT THE SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. OTHERWISE,
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA IS
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT
FOR THE ENTIRE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL SUSTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SE TO S WINDS THROUGH FRI, THEN DIMINISH TO BETWEEN GENTLE
AND MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EVENING
PULSES OF FRESH WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST AT THE SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF UNTIL THIS EVENING,
THEN THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND FRI. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST FORECASTS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE SOUTHEASTERN END OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE E WINDS AND
SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FT ARE NOTED AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN, WHILE
FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT AT THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND PART OF THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT DOMINATE THE LEE OF
CUBA AND WATERS NEAR COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO
SE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1020 MB
HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A 1006 MB COLOMBIAN LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE TO NEAR-GALE FORCE OFF NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA
THIS MORNING AND THEN THIS EVENING. TRADES IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
AND JUST NORTH OF JAMAICA WILL REACH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THEN TONIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH IS
GOING TO WEAKEN AND OPEN UP INTO A RIDGE NEAR 24N BY FRI. THIS
WILL YIELD MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL BASIN, WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
REMAIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE STRETCHING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 1024 MB HIGH
NEAR MADEIRA ACROSS 30N30W TO A 1020 MB HIGH NORTH OF LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 25N63W IS PROMOTING GENTLE WITH LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS NORTH OF 22N
BETWEEN 35W AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/FLORIDA COAST. FOR THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 06N TO 22N BETWEEN 35W AND THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS/LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS
AND SEAS AT 6 TO 8 FT ARE SEEN. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS
AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS SOUTH OF
28N INTO NEARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF 28N AND EAST OF
70W, TWO COLD FRONTS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC
IS GOING TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI EVENING, THEN AGAIN FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN
NIGHT.
CHAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page