944
AXNT20 KNHC 281653
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU MAY 28 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W, SOUTH OF 16N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ABOUT THE WAVE S OF 09N BETWEEN 35W AND 49W.
ANOTHER ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 57W, SOUTH OF 11N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT
S OF 08N BETWEEN 49W AND 62W, AND MOSTLY OVER LAND.
A SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM OFFSHORE OF
NICARAGUA ALONG 82W ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA AND INTO THE PACIFIC
OCEAN. THE WAVE IS ENCOUNTERING SOUTHEASTERLY MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN, AND THE MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WITH A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION NEAR 10 KT.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS MENTIONED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW, AND IS MOSTLY OCCURRING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WATERS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 16.5N16.5W, AND CURVES
SOUTH THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N24W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES WESTWARD
FROM 05N25W TO 05.5N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 03N TO 09N E OF 18W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 09N BETWEEN
34W AND 58W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS INITIATING
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA S OF 11.5N, AND EXTENDS WELL
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO 04N.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A PRONOUNCED DEEP-LAYERED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
EASTERN TEXAS THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE
IS COMBINING WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF BETWEEN 87W
AND 95W, FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NORTHWARD TO SE LOUISIANA. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. OTHERWISE,
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ALONG 65W EXTENDS A BROAD AND WEAK RIDGE
WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THE ASSOCIATED
PRESSURE PATTERN IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS
AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT TO THE E OF 92W, AND VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR
LESS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL SUSTAIN MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SE TO S WINDS ACROSS THE GULF BASIN THROUGH FRI,
THEN DIMINISH TO BETWEEN GENTLE AND MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE EVENING PULSES OF FRESH WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A DEEP-LAYERED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL GULF UNTIL THIS EVENING,
THEN OVER THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND FRI. FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST FORECASTS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF AMERICA EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NE COASTS OF OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS, AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. REFER TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. AT THE SURFACE, 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 27N65W AND EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE
W-NW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE, RECENT
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED STRONG E TRADE WINDS TO 30 KT
AND SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH- CENTRAL BASIN, WHILE
FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS WITH 5 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT AT THE
NORTH- CENTRAL AND PART OF THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT DOMINATE THE WATERS
IN THE LEE OF CUBA. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT
SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS SAHARAN AIR ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 27N65W AND A 1007 MB
COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRI. TRADES IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND JUST NORTH OF
JAMAICA WILL REACH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS TONIGHT. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND OPEN UP INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE ALONG 24N BY FRI. THIS WILL YIELD MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN, WHERE FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE STRETCHING FROM 1026 MB HIGH NEAR MADEIRA WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS 30N30W TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N65W THEN TO
NORTHERN FLORIDA IS PROMOTING GENTLE WITH LOCALLY MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS, AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE SWELL
NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 35W AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/FLORIDA COAST.
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 35W AND THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO
E WINDS AND SEAS AT 6 TO 8 FT WERE RECENTLY OBSERVED IN SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER DATA. SAHARAN AIR CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
THIS AREA BETWEEN 08N AND 20N, WITH DENSE AFRICAN DUST DOMINATING
THE WATERS E OF 30W TO THE AFRICAN COAST. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT PREVAIL ACROSS THESE WATERS E OF
30W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE CURRENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS
SOUTH OF 28N INTO NEARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF 28N
AND EAST OF 70W, TWO COLD FRONTS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH ATLANTIC WILL BRING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI EVENING, THEN AGAIN FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN
NIGHT.
STRIPLING
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