029
AXNT20 KNHC 282359
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI MAY 29 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 45W FROM 02N
TO 16N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 46W AND
48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE WAVE.
ANOTHER CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 60W
SOUTH OF 14N TO INLAND SOUTH AMERICA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS OVER WATER
WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
OVER SOUTH AMERICA ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.
THE PREVIOUS SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED
INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA, WITH ITS AXIS NEAR 85W SOUTH OF 15N
TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 06N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR
10 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BECOME MORE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHEASTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW THAT IS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL
AS WITH THE MONSOONAL FLOW THAT IS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
DEEP CONVECTION ATTRIBUTED TO THIS WAVE IS OCCURRING OVER THE
PACIFIC WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF COSTA RICA AND NORTHERN PANAMA.
IN ADDITION TO THAT CONVECTION, THERE IS NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION ACTIVE OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE WAVE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 13N AND WEST OF 77W TO INLAND
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 16N17W, THEN
CURVES SOUTH THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 06N23W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 06N30W TO 06N35W AND TO NEAR
07N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 39W-43W AND WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 36W-40W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A VERY PRONOUNCED AND SHARP DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
EASTERN TEXAS THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THIS
FEATURE IS COMBINING WITH VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE RESULTING
IN SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER MOST OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WATERS, NAMELY OVER THE WATERS SOUTH
OF 28N AND BETWEEN 87W AND 95W. A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS OVER
THE WESTERN GULF ARE FURTHER AIDING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A
SQUALL LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 29N88W TO 25N89W HAS WEAKENED
SOME DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ALONG
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 82.5W AND 87W,
INCLUDING THE WATERS ADJACENT TO WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN CHANNEL. OTHERWISE, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ALONG 65W
EXTENDS A BROAD AND WEAK RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF. THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE PATTERN IS GENERALLY
SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SOUTH OF
23N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE BASIN,
EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE GULF REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE E
TO SE WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE EVENING PULSES OF FRESH WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A PRONOUNCED DEEP-LAYERED UPPER- LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COMBINED WITH A VERY WARM, HUMID
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GULF WATERS
LIKELY THROUGH SUN. FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MARINERS
ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED TO THE GULF OF AMERICA DEEP LAYER TROUGH
IS SUSTAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE INDUCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE, AND RELATIVELY
LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS
BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTION OF
THE BASIN. MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE SEA, EXCEPT FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WINDS
IN THE LEE OF CUBA, REACHING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 18N BETWEEN 78W AND
83W. SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION AND ABOUT 4 TO
6 FT ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN EAST SWELL IN THE NORTH-
CENTRAL WATERS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THE DUST IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRESSURE TO ITS SOUTH WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW FOR FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN
AREAL COVERAGE ON FRI. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO NEAR-GALE
FORCE OFFSHORE COLOMBIA TONIGHT. FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH IS GOING TO WEAKEN AND OPEN UP INTO A RIDGE
NEAR 24N BY FRI. THIS WILL YIELD MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
EXCEPT THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE ON SAT, POSSIBLY
LEADING TO INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A RIDGE STRETCHING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR MADEIRA WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS 30N30W TO A 1018 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 26N63W,
THEN TO NORTHERN FLORIDA IS PROMOTING GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ALONG WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE
SWELL NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 35W AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/FLORIDA
COAST. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 35W AND THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE
PRESENT THERE AS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE AND ALTIMETER
DATA PASSES DURING THE DAY.
A SAHARAN DUST PLUME IS OBSERVED OVER THIS AREA ROUGHLY FROM 08N
AND 20N, WITH A DENSE PLUME OF DUST OVER THE WATERS EAST OF 30W
TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TRADE
WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT REMAIN OVER THESE SAME WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH
MODERATE SEAS SOUTH OF 28N INTO NEARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THE WATERS
NORTH OF 28N AND EAST OF 70W, TWO COLD FRONTS MIGRATING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC ARE GOING TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT, THEN AGAIN
FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
AGUIRRE
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