458
AXNT20 KNHC 290331
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC FRI MAY 29 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 48W SOUTH OF
15N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
DESCRIBED BELOW IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 64W SOUTH OF
15N TO INLAND CENTRAL VENEZUELA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 16N17W, THEN
CURVES SOUTH THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 13N203W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 10N22W TO TO 06N35W AND TO 06N30W TO 07N40W TO 05N48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 35W AND
50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N95W.
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE EAST OF THIS
FEATURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACTIVE NORTH
OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF CUBA, ALONG
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT REACHES FROM OFF WESTERN CUBA TO THE CENTRAL
YUCATAN PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE, 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF NEAR 28N85W. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ACROSS THE GULF, EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST GULF WHERE GUSTY OUTFLOWS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS ARE MOSTLY 2-4 FT ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TUE, EXCEPT FOR
EVENING PULSES OF FRESH WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN AND IN THE
CENTRAL GULF. THE PRONOUNCED DEEP- LAYERED UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COMBINED WITH A VERY WARM, HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH SUN.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO
DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A GENERALLY DRIER, SUBSIDENT PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN, SUPPRESSING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN, DIVERGENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING LATE EVENING, SEA-BREEZE
GENERATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NICARAGUA, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
ACTIVITY OVER THE WATER AT THIS TIME. BROAD RIDGING NORTH OF THE
BASIN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, ALONG WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS
ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AND COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT.
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD TO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE DUST IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE ON FRI.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO NEAR-GALE FORCE OFFSHORE COLOMBIA
THE REST OF TONIGHT. FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH IS
GOING TO WEAKEN AND OPEN UP INTO A RIDGE NEAR 24N BY FRI. THIS
WILL YIELD MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE ON SAT, LEADING TO INCREASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A RIDGE STRETCHES WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1027 MB HIGH BETWEEN
THE EASTERN AZORES AND MADEIRA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND OFF
EASTERN FLORIDA. THIS PATTERN IS PROMOTING GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ALONG WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE
SWELL NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 35W AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/FLORIDA
COAST. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 35W AND
THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE
PRESENT THERE AS DEPICTED IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER
SATELLITE PASSES. A SAHARAN DUST PLUME IS OBSERVED OVER THIS AREA
ROUGHLY FROM 08N AND 20N, WITH A DENSE PLUME OF DUST OVER THE
WATERS EAST OF 40W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS SOUTH OF
28N INTO NEARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF 28N AND EAST OF
70W, TWO COLD FRONTS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC
ARE GOING TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT, THEN AGAIN FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. WINDS FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN MIGHT PEAK AT NEAR-GALE
FORCE IN THE AREA.
CHRISTENSEN
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