103
AXNT20 KNHC 291734
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI MAY 29 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 54W SOUTH OF
17N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS SEEN FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 59W.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 71W SOUTH OF
15N TO INLAND CENTRAL VENEZUELA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 16.5N16.5W, THEN
CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 07N25W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N25W
TO 04N37W TO 05N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO
10N AND E OF 22W, AND FROM 00N TO 09N BETWEEN 36W AND 51W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ATTENDANT 1009 MB
SURFACE LOW SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, GENTLE TO MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE GULF REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO
SE WINDS THROUGH TUE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EVENING PULSES OF
FRESH WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD. A PRONOUNCED DEEP-LAYERED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COMBINED WITH A VERY WARM, HUMID
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH SUN.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO
DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER SE MEXICO WHILE THE EAST
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE
COMBINED EFFECTS FROM THESE FEATURES ARE ENHANCING NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COASTS
OF NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA, AND PANAMA, WITH MORE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE REGION AND THE COLOMBIA LOW SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES AND 7-9 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SW CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUSTAIN FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATE E TO SE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS ARE GOING TO PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS DURING THE NIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS GOING TO WEAKEN AS
A COUPLE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL YIELD MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH TUE, EXCEPT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS BY SAT AFTERNOON, LEADING TO INCREASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT RUNS ALONG 31N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, GENERALLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 45W AND 70W, SW WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS WHILE SEAS ARE BUILDING TO
7-10 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING N OF 28N
BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. ALL OTHER CONVECTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES OR THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. RIDGING
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REMAINING ATLANTIC, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAILING ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
BASIN W OF 25W. AREAS E OF 25W AND N OF 17N ARE SEEING FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS, CONFIRMED BY
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THIS MORNING. GENTLE TO MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS PREVAIL WITHIN A RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS
FROM JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
TO AREAS JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS SOUTH OF
26N THROUGH TUE. FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF 26N AND EAST OF 70W, TWO
COLD FRONTS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC ARE GOING
TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, THEN AGAIN FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. WINDS MAY
REACH NEAR GALE FORCE AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN.
ADAMS
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