547
AXNT20 KNHC 300552
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SAT MAY 30 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0505 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT, NORTH OF 30N AND
BETWEEN 55W AND 70W. ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MON.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
ALONG 14W, SOUTH OF 15N BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY, TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND TROPICAL WAVE GUIDANCE. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
SOUTH OF 12N AND EAST OF 27W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W, SOUTH OF 18N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED SOUTH OF 11N AND BETWEEN 45W AND 65W.
A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 73W, SOUTH OF 16N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
HOWEVER, SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND ACROSS
COLOMBIA AND FAR WESTERN VENEZUELA ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W, CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N21W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N21W TO 05N35W AND THEN TO 03N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W AND 45W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN GULF AND A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO AFFECTING PARTS OF YUCATAN, CENTRAL AMERICA AND
FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SEAS.
HOWEVER, STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS CAN OCCUR NEAR THE
STRONGEST STORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE GULF REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO
SE WINDS THROUGH TUE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EVENING PULSES OF
FRESH WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD. A PRONOUNCED DEEP-LAYERED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COMBINED WITH A VERY WARM, HUMID
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH SUN.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO
DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CUBA, HISPANIOLA,
YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-8 FT
IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND NW CARIBBEAN, MAINLY SOUTH OF 20N. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUSTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE ON SAT. MODERATE E TO SE
WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS ARE GOING TO PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS
DURING THE NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT, THEN TO STRONG SPEEDS TUE
NIGHT AND AGAIN WED NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS GOING TO
WEAKEN AS A COUPLE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL YIELD MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH TUE, EXCEPT THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL PERSIST. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY SAT AFTERNOON, LEADING TO INCREASED
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N61W TO 29N72W, FOLLOWED BY A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE GEORGIA COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN
NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS
INDICATE THAT MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SW WINDS ARE OCCURRING
AHEAD OF THE FRONTS TO 40W AND NORTH OF 27N. SEAS IN THESE WATERS
ARE 5-10 FT, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NEAR 31N54W.
THE REST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED BETWEEN THE AZORES AND MADEIRA ISLAND. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN WESTERN AFRICA
SUSTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N-NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FROM 17N
TO 29N AND EAST OF 30W. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT SOUTH OF 20N AND BETWEEN THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND 30W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS SOUTH OF
26N THROUGH TUE. FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF 26N AND EAST OF 70W, TWO
COLD FRONTS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC ARE
GOING TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS THROUGH
TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SECOND
COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AS A RESULT, A GALE WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS COULD ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST WINDS.
DELGADO
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