522
AXNT20 KNHC 301037
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SAT MAY 30 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
BETWEEN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY SUN, SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA NEAR 30N63W. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS, ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS, AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, NORTH OF 26N.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MON AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ITS WAKE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
ALONG 16W, SOUTH OF 15N BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY, TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND TROPICAL WAVE GUIDANCE. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W, SOUTH OF 17N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 48W AND
57W.
A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 74W, SOUTH OF 16N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W, CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N20W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N20W TO 03N51W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED OTHER THAN WHAT WAS ALREADY DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL
WAVE SECTION ABOVE.
..GULF OF AMERICA
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN GULF AND A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN MODERATE OR LIGHTER
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SEAS. HOWEVER, STRONGER WINDS
AND HIGHER SEAS CAN OCCUR NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PATTERN WILL SUSTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE E
TO SE WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EVENING PULSES
OF FRESH WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD. A PRONOUNCED DEEP-LAYERED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COMBINED WITH A VERY WARM, HUMID
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH SUN.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO
DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN, EAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-8
FT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND NW CARIBBEAN, MAINLY SOUTH OF 20N. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
FRESH E TO SE TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LOOKING AHEAD, THE AREA OF FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE THIS MORNING NEAR A
1011 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THE LOW IS ALONG
A STATIONARY FRONT BETWEEN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA, NORTH OF
A RIDGE ALONG 25N. BROAD RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 1028 MB HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR 30N30W TO THE NEAR THE BAHAMAS. FRESH TO STRONG SW
WINDS AND 7 TO 9 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT, NORTH OF 28N. MAINLY FRESH NE WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS ARE
NOTED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS WEST OF 35W, WITH
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND 6-9 FT SEAS EAST OF 35W. GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES AND 3-5 FT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. A LARGE AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF 10N AND EAST
OF 50W, WHICH IS LIKELY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION OVER THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA.
THE COMBINED FRONTS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD, REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY EARLY SUN. EXPECT STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N SUN,
WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N63W BY SUN
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL FROM 31N57W TO 27N65W
BY EARLY MON. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH WEST OF THE FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BETWEEN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. LOOKING
AHEAD, A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ACCOMPANYING FRONT MAY MOVE
OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY LATE MON AND SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD
BERMUDA THROUGH MID WEEK, ACCOMPANIED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 27N.
CHRISTENSEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page