145
AXNT20 KNHC 310359
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN MAY 31 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0355 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
BETWEEN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON, SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA TO NEAR 29N, AND BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. STRONG TO NEAR-
GALE FORCE WINDS, ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, AND SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, NORTH OF 26N. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MON AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 23W, SOUTH OF
13N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT SOUTH OF 09N AND BETWEEN 20W AND
30W.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W, SOUTH OF 16N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 12N TO WELL INLAND ACROSS VENEZUELA,
BETWEEN 57W AND 70W.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W, SOUTH OF 16N,
MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT
NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N24W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N24W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
SOUTH OF 10N AND EAST OF 20W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN FROM 03N
TO 10N AND WEST OF 30W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A DEEP-LAYERED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE CENTRAL BAY
OF CAMPECHE, WITH ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER, STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, .
..CARIBBEAN SEA
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CUBA, YUCATAN, CENTRAL
AMERICA AND SURROUNDING WATERS. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NE OF THE ISLANDS AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA RESULTS IN FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN
THE EASTERN AND NW CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, .
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR 30N75W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
THE LOW. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOW TO 68W AND NORTH OF 26N. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-8 FT ARE NOTED NORTH OF 27N AND BETWEEN 68W
AND 76W. MODERATE TO FRESH S-SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND
NORTH OF 20N AND BETWEEN 50W AND 68W.
THE REST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR 30N35W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE
AND LOWER PRESSURES IN WESTERN AFRICA SUSTAIN FRESH TO STRONG
N-NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FROM 10N TO 29N AND EAST OF 40W.
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT
SOUTH OF 20N AND BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND 40W. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, ARE AHEAD OF A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
NEAR 30N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
NW BAHAMAS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES AS THEY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD, REACHING FROM NEAR
BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY EARLY SUN. EXPECT STRONG TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 29N SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AND STALL FROM 31N57W TO 27N65W BY EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISH WEST OF THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BETWEEN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. LOOKING AHEAD, A SECOND LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND ACCOMPANYING FRONT MAY MOVE OFF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA ON MON AND SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA THROUGH MID WEEK,
ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
WATERS NORTH OF 27N.
DELGADO
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