705
AXNT20 KNHC 311012
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SUN MAY 31 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
BETWEEN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA TODAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD
FRONT BY LATE MORNING, SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA TO NEAR
29N, AND BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. STRONG TO NEAR- GALE FORCE WINDS,
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, NORTH OF
26N. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE INTO MON AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 25W, SOUTH OF
13N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W, SOUTH OF 16N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR 09N70W.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W, SOUTH OF 15N,
MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 16N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N25W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N25W TO 05N30W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA
NEAR 05N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 07N
TO 09N BETWEEN 20W AND 22W, AND FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 48W AND
52W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A DEEP-LAYERED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. AT THE
SURFACE, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA TO 25N96W, AND OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES AND THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF IS SUPPORTING
MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S FLOW AND 2-4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE
BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH MIDWEEK SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WITH
MODERATE SEAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EVENING PULSES OF FRESH
WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC BUT
THEN IS DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OFF
NORTHWEST VENEZUELA AND NORTHEAST COLOMBIA, WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY
UP TO 7 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE
OFF EASTERN HONDURAS, IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR
PUERTO BARRIOS, AND NORTH OF CENTRAL PANAMA WHERE A TROPICAL WAVE
IS INTERACTING WITH THE PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST
OF THE BASIN INTO MON, WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA
STRENGTHENS. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
STARTING LATE WED AS THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE BASIN WEAKENS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
31N70W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO ABACO ISLAND IN THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE
WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THESE FEATURES. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE AZORES TO HISPANIOLA. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE LOW PRESSURE/WARM FRONT IS
SUPPORTING STRONG SW WINDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT WITHIN 300 NM TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE, WITH FRESH SW WINDS AND 5-8 FT SEAS
COVERING NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 75W. ELSEWHERE FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WEST OF 40W. FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS AND 6-9 FT SEAS ARE NOTED EAST OF 40W NORTH OF 10N, WITH
GENTLE BREEZES AND 4-6 FT SEAS SOUTH OF 10N. GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES AND 4-6 FT ARE NOTED ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. SAHARAN DUST
COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 10N AND EAST OF 60W, REACHING AS FAR WEST
AS THE LESSER ANTILLES.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE-FORCE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS ACCOMPANY 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD
ALONG 30N TOWARD BERMUDA THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD, REACHING FROM
NEAR BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TODAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
CAROLINA MON, WHICH WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA THROUGH MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A THIRD LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL MOVE BETWEEN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA WED AND THU.
CHRISTENSEN
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