639
AXNT20 KNHC 311808
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SUN MAY 31 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING:
A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA ACROSS 31N65W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 29N67W, THEN CONTINUES
AS A COLD FRONT TO 31N64W AND TURNS NORTHWESTWARD TO BEYOND
31N81W. NEAR- GALE TO GALE SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED JUST EAST OF THE
LOW NEAR 30N64W BY 18Z LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PULLS
NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN TONIGHT, IT SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DROP
BELOW GALE- FORCE LATER THIS EVENING. SEAS UNDER THESE WINDS WILL
PEAK AT 10 TO 12 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 26W FROM 12N SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WESTWARD AROUND
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 03N TO 08N
BETWEEN 22W AND 30W.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 68W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD
TO OVER VENEZUELA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 80W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD
ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC. IT IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. IT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR COSTA RICA, PANAMA AND NORTHWESTERN
COLOMBIA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF SENEGAL
NEAR DAKAR, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N22W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 07N22W TO 05N40W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 04N TO 08N AND WEST OF 22W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT UP TO 80 NM
ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AT
THE CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. OTHERWISE, A MODEST RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE EASTERN GULF IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO
MODERATE SE TO SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT SEAS MUCH OF THE
GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS
WITH MODERATE SEAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EVENING PULSES OF FRESH
WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO NEAR HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. CONVERGENT TRADE WINDS ARE
CAUSING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, AND
AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA.
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 7 FT SEAS EXIST AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE NOTED AT THE LEE
OF CUBA AND NEAR COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. MODERATE WITH LOCALLY
FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COMBINATION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE
COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN INTO MON, WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL BASIN MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA
STRENGTHENS. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
STARTING LATE WED AS THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE BASIN WEAKENS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT AN UPCOMING GALE
WARNING.
A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA ACROSS 31N65W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 29N67W, THEN CONTINUES
AS A COLD FRONT TO 31N64W AND TURNS NORTHWESTWARD TO BEYOND
31N81W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING UP TO 200 NM EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY EAST OF 71W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND UP TO 50 NM ALONG EITHER
SIDE OF THE REST OF THE BOUNDARY. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS AT THE BEGINNING FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
FRESH TO STRONG WITH LOCALLY NEAR-GALE S TO SW WINDS WITH 7 TO 9
FT SEAS ARE NOTED NEAR AND UP TO 250 NM EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE, AN ELONGATED RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 30N35W IS DOMINATING THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF
23N WEST OF 35W WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E TO SE WINDS AND
SEAS AT 3 TO 6 FT. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 06N TO 23N
BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS, MODERATE
TO FRESH NE TO ESE WINDS AND 6 TO 9 FT ARE EVIDENT. GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED MODERATE
SWELLS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AND BE ABSORBED BY A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF THE
AREA LATER TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD,
REACHING FROM 31N58W TO 27N65W TO 24N71W BY EARLY MON MORNING WHEN
FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT WATERS NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 54W AND 61W.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE IS GOING TO ENTER INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST ON MON, AND THEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD OF BERMUDA LATE ON TUE.
LOOKING AHEAD, A THIRD LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE BETWEEN
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND BERMUDA WED AND THU.
CHAN
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