313
AXNT20 KNHC 312236
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SUN MAY 31 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS NOTED NEAR
29N66W, WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NE FROM IT TO BEYOND 31N64W.
TO THE EAST OF THE LOW AND S OF THE WARM FRONT, GALE FORCE SW
WINDS ARE OCCURRING. THE LOW WILL TRACK NE AND OUT OF THE REGION
TONIGHT, AND GALES WILL END. SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FT WILL ALSO
DIMINISH SOME AS THE WINDS DECREASE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS SW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
NEAR 28W FROM 12N SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT.
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS DIMINISHED
THIS AFTERNOON.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 70W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD
TO OVER VENEZUELA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER THE BASIN IS PRECLUDING CONVECTION NEAR
THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 81W FROM 14W SOUTHWARD
ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THIS WAVE,
WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE COASTS OF PANAMA, COSTA RICA, AND
NICARAGUA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SENEGAL 14N17W, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N25W. AN ITCZ
CONTINUES WEST FROM 07N25W TO 05N40W TO 07N58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH FROM 04N TO 08N AND WEST OF 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT UP TO 80 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N88W TO JUST NW OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR THE NORTHERN VERTEX OF THE TROUGH. TO THE E OF
THE TROUGH, FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED JUST N OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA, WHERE LOCALLY MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS
WITH MODERATE SEAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EVENING PULSES OF FRESH
WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EAST AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. EXPECT
FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE NE
GULF WED AND WED NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES THE AREA.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO NEAR HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. CONVERGENT TRADE WINDS ARE
CAUSING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, AND
AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA.
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG E WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS
ARE NOTED IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN, WITH FRESH WINDS AND 5 TO 7
FT SEAS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY MODERATE TRADES
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN
LOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
BASIN INTO MON, WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON
NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS. LOOKING
AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY STARTING LATE WED AS
THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE BASIN WEAKENS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT A GALE WARNING FOR
WATERS S OF BERMUDA.
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE S OF BERMUDA THAT IS INDUCING THE
GALES, A COLD FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD TO 26N73W TO JUST OFF THE
NE FLORIDA COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS ALONG AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE FRONT. ASIDE FROM THE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DESCRIBED IN THE GALE CONDITIONS AND THE
LOCALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION, BROADER
WINDS IN THE WESTERN BASIN NEAR THE BOUNDARY AREA MODERATE OR
WEAKER WITH MAINLY MODERATE SEAS.
ELSEWHERE, AN ELONGATED RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1029 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 30N36W DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BASIN, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD, REACHING FROM 31N58W TO 25N70W BY EARLY MON
MORNING WHEN FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NE WATERS. MEANWHILE,
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL REACH THE NW WATERS ON MON, AND
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA LATE ON TUE. LOOKING
AHEAD, A THIRD LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE BETWEEN NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND BERMUDA WED AND THU.
KONARIK
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