667
AXNT20 KNHC 010425
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON JUN 1 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0355 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 31N60W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 25N75W, WHERE IT
BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT TO NE FLORIDA. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED STRONG TO GALE-FORCE SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO 57W AND NORTH OF 29N. ROUGH SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THESE
WATERS. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE NORTH OF OUR AREA BY 0600 UTC.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MON.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W, SOUTH OF 12N AND
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT FROM 02N TO 09N AND BETWEEN 24W AND 37W.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W, SOUTH OF 17N AND MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER THE BASIN IS
PRECLUDING CONVECTION NEAR THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W, SOUTH OF 15N AND MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED AROUND THIS
SYSTEM.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N29W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N29W TO 04N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS EVIDENT FROM 03N TO 13N AND EAST OF 24W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
SEEN WITHIN 120 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE ITCZ.
..GULF OF AMERICA
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER YUCATAN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE STORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND OFF NORTHERN YUCATAN. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE ALSO NOTED IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SUPPORTS MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS WEST OF A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO WESTERN CUBA.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH MIDWEEK SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WITH
MODERATE SEAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EVENING PULSES OF FRESH
WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE NE GULF WED AND WED NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REACHES THE AREA.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NE OF
THE ISLANDS AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA RESULTS IN
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-8 FT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY BREEZES
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE EASTERN
AND REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA, HISPANIOLA, YUCATAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA AND NEARBY WATERS. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT
ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
BASIN INTO MON, WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS.
LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY STARTING
LATE WED AS THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE BASIN WEAKENS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT A GALE WARNING FOR
WATERS SE OF BERMUDA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO 25N75W, FOLLOWED BY A
STATIONARY FRONT TO NE FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TO 55W AND NORTH OF 24N AND WEST OF 76W. FRESH TO
STRONG SW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
50W AND NORTH OF 27W. ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO PRESENT BEHIND THE FRONT
TO 65W AND NORTH OF 27W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC (WEST
OF 55W, NORTH OF 20N).
THE REST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR 33N33W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE
AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS SUSTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
N-NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS EAST OF A LINE FROM 31N33W TO THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD, REACHING FROM 31N58W TO 25N70W BY EARLY MON MORNING
WHEN FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NE WATERS. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY LATE MON AND
SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA BY LATE TUE BEFORE DISSIPATING.
ASSOCIATED WINDS TO MINIMAL GALE-FORCE ARE LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA BY LATE TUE. LOOKING AHEAD, A THIRD LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES BETWEEN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA WED
AND THU.
DELGADO
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