152
AXNT20 KNHC 011726
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON JUN 1 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ATTENDANT FRONT
MOVING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS LATE TUE. EXPECT STRONG SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT TUE, WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE-
FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA TUE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM BERMUDA TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE BY
WED MORNING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W, SOUTH OF 17N AND
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 31W-42W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W, SOUTH OF 15N AND
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15-20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
IS PRESENT WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA
BISSAU NEAR 11N15W AND EXTENDS TO 07N31W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
THAT POINT TO THE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 04N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 04N-07N EAST OF 20W AND FROM 37W-51W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE NE MEXICO COAST IS HELPING
TO PROMOTE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN
88W-95W. EXCEPT NEAR THESE THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
ARE GENTLE WITH SEAS 1-4 FT DUE TO WEAK RIDGING PREDOMINATING.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WATERS INTO MIDWEEK SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS
WITH MODERATE SEAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EVENING PULSES OF FRESH
WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EAST AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG E
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE NE GULF WED AND WED
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES THE AREA. LOOKING AHEAD, THESE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU THROUGH FRI AS THE FRONT STALLS
AND WEAKENS FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND A 1008 MB COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER. SEAS ARE 6-8
FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 3-6 FT ELSEWHERE. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
BASIN, WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT
INTO TUE AS THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS. LOOKING
AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY STARTING LATE WED AS
THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE BASIN WEAKENS. FARTHER WEST, STRONG WINDS
WILL PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH
FRI.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT A GALE WARNING FOR
WATERS SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA TUE EVENING.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO 27N63W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N71W. WHILE WINDS ARE GENERALLY
MODERATE OR WEAKER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. FARTHER WEST, FREQUENT MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 71W-78W. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DUE TO A 1010 MB LOW JUST NORTH OF OUR WATERS
NEAR 32N77W WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW
TO 28N77W. THE MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT RIDGING FROM AN AZORES
HIGH SOUTHWARD TO LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ IS FORCING
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADES SOUTH OF 25N. SEAS ARE 6-9 FT
NORTH OF 29N AND EAST OF 60W WITH SEAS 2-5 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N57W
TO 22N63W, THEN CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 24N71W. THE
COLD FRONT PORTION IS SHIFTING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND ATTENDANT FRONT MOVING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD BERMUDA THROUGH LATE TUE, WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
EXPECT STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT TUE,
WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE-FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA TUE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL STALL
FROM BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT, AHEAD OF A
REINFORCING FRONT MOVING INTO THE WATERS OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH INTO FRI AFTER THE
FRONTS MERGE, THEN WEAKEN IN PLACE FROM BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE CAROLINAS.
FARTHER SOUTH, STRONG WINDS MAY PULSE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA TUE NIGHT.
LANDSEA
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