655
AXNT20 KNHC 021727
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE JUN 2 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1727 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 30N71W TO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THE
LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND PASSING BERMUDA THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT STRONG SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT, WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE-FORCE
WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL STALL THIS EVENING, AND WINDS WILL
FALL BELOW GALE FORCE TONIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39.5W, SOUTH OF 16N
AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR
THE TROUGH AXIS.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ANALYZED ALONG 50.5W,
SOUTH OF 16N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
NOTED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS.
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED TO THE EPAC, AND
MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE TWDEP.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N39W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N39W TO 05N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 03N TO 11N AND EAST
OF 27W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 44W
AND 54W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND TROPICAL MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION, GENTLE TO MODERATE VARIABLE WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS 2
TO 3 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A MODEST SURFACE RIDGE AT THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS INTO WED. A LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF WED NIGHT, THEN STALL FROM NEAR PUNTA GORDA,
FLORIDA TO NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING FRI. ANTICIPATE FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND ALSO NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. BY FRI NIGHT, RIDGING SHOULD REBUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF, RESUMING GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS FOR THE ENTIRE GULF. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED FRESH TO STRONG NE
TO E WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS WITHIN THESE WINDS ARE
7 TO 10 FT. THIS IS DUE TO THE VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE EXPANDING 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE
AZORES AND VERY LOW PRESSURES IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
AND COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS AT THE CENTRAL AND PART OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
BASIN THROUGH WED MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
STARTING LATE WED AS THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE BASIN WEAKENS. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED AT THE GULF OF
HONDURAS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. AFTERWARD, GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE
WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST THE OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT A GALE WARNING FOR
WATERS SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA TODAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
30N71W TO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
TO 30N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
PRESENT SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF 24N AND BETWEEN 68W
AND 78W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-8
FT ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF 26N AND EAST OF 71W. TO THE EAST, A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO THE WARM FRONT. FRESH TO
STRONG S-SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-9 FT ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TO 26N AND BETWEEN 58W AND 64W. ELSEWHERE WEST OF 71W, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
THE REST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE AND NEAR
MOROCCO. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND PASSING
BERMUDA THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT, WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE-FORCE WINDS AND
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS THIS EVENING, AHEAD OF A REINFORCING FRONT MOVING INTO THE
WATERS OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG TO NEAR-GALE
FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH INTO FRI AFTER THE FRONTS MERGE, THEN WEAKEN IN PLACE
FROM BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OFF THE CAROLINAS. FARTHER SOUTH, STRONG WINDS MAY PULSE
OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT.
KRV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page