530
AXNT20 KNHC 030407
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED JUN 3 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0355 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GALE WARNING E OF 35W: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1034 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN NW AFRICA RESULT IN STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE AGADIR HIGH SEAS MARINE ZONES. GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED 03/1500 TO AT LEAST 04/0000 UTC WITH SEVERE
GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR MORE DETAILS, REFER TO THE
METEO- FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST LISTED ON THEIR WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W, SOUTH OF 13N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 10N AND BETWEEN 25W AND 30W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44N, SOUTH OF 14N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THIS
TROUGH.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ANALYZED ALONG 54W,
SOUTH OF 16N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. NO CONVECTION IS
PRESENT NEAR THIS TROUGH AT THIS TIME.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF 16N16W
AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 02N27W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
02N27W TO 01N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT NEAR THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.
..GULF OF AMERICA
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS..
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL SUPPORT
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. A LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF WED MORNING, THEN STALL FROM NEAR PUNTA GORDA, FLORIDA TO NEW
ORLEANS, LOUISIANA THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING FRI.
ANTICIPATE FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND ALSO NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BY FRI NIGHT,
RIDGING SHOULD REBUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF,
RESUMING GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS FOR
THE ENTIRE GULF. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST GULF THROUGH WED.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A RECENT, PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED NEAR
GALE-FORCE EASTERLY WINDS, UP TO 31 KT, IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA.
THIS IS DUE TO THE VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
EXPANDING 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SW OF THE AZORES AND VERY
LOW PRESSURES IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EAST THROUGH LATE WED. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL ALLOW FRESH
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY, ALTHOUGH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS MAY
PULSE OFF VENEZUELA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT NIGHT THROUGH
FRI. LOOKING AHEAD, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE MAY REBUILD BY SUN,
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT A GALE WARNING IN
THE FAR NE ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT IS SINKING ACROSS THE WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA,
EXTENDING FROM 31N74W TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH, FLORIDA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE
FRONT TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND WEST OF 75W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE FRONT RESULTS FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS AND MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS. FARTHER EAST, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO
27N74W, FOLLOWED BY A STATIONARY FRONT TO 27N78W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO 62W AND NORTH OF 27N. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ARE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 55W AND NORTH OF 27N.
THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL BRIDGE CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN AFRICA RESULT
IN FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS EAST OF 25W. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH AND SEAS OF 6-9 FT ARE NOTED BETWEEN 25W AND 70W.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
MOVING NORTHEAST PAST BERMUDA, WITH A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS, ROUGH
SEAS, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO
WED SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA, NORTH OF 27N. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA
IS MOVING FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO BERMUDA WITH A REINFORCING FRONT
CURRENTLY REACHING FROM 31N74W TO DAYTONA BEACH, FLORIDA, FOLLOWED
BY FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. THE
FRONTS MERGE INTO ONE FRONT FROM BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
BY WED NIGHT. THE MERGED FRONT WILL STALL FROM JUST EAST OF
BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA BY THU NIGHT,
THEN MEANDER NORTHWARD AS IT WEAKENS THROUGH SUN. FARTHER SOUTH,
FRESH WINDS WILL PERSIST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA
TONIGHT.
DELGADO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page