539
AXNT20 KNHC 030828
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED JUN 3 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0820 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GALE WARNING EAST OF 35W: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1033
MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES AND
LOWER PRESSURES IN NORTHWEST AFRICA RESULT IN STRONG TO NEAR
GALE- FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE AGADIR HIGH SEAS MARINE ZONES.
GALE- FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED 03/1500 TO AT LEAST 04/0000 UTC
WITH SEVERE GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR MORE DETAILS, REFER
TO THE METEO- FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST LISTED ON THEIR WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W, SOUTH OF 13N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
03N TO 07N BETWEEN 27W AND 31W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44N, SOUTH OF 14N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
NEAR THIS TROUGH.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ANALYZED ALONG 55W,
SOUTH OF 15N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OBSERVED FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 55W AND 57W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N25W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N25W TO 00N35W TO
00N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 01S TO 02N
BETWEEN 35W AND 40W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GULF IS INTERACTING WITH WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST GULF, FROM OFF NORTHEAST YUCATAN TO OFF
NORTHWEST CUBA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACTIVE IN
THE BIG BEND AREA IN THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF ALONG A COLD FRONT
FROM SLIDELL, LOUISIANA TO PINE ISLAND, FLORIDA. A SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE PASS FROM AROUND 03 UTC CONFIRMED FRESH NE TO E WINDS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE, A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS
CENTERED NEAR 27N85W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AND A TROUGH NEAR YUCATAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH E WINDS
NORTH OF YUCATAN. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
COMBINED SEAS ARE 2-4 FT ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST
GULF THIS MORNING WILL STALL FROM SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA THROUGH THU, THEN DISSIPATE GRADUALLY BY SAT. EXPECT
FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF THE
FRONT TODAY AND THU. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL EXTEND FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF TODAY, AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH THU. THE LOW PRESSURE MAY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
INTO THE LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH FRI. STRONG TO NEAR- GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH- CENTRAL GULF STARTING TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE FORMS. BY
FRI, THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH AND ENHANCE
THE ONGOING CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH- CENTRAL GULF, EVEN AS BOTH
THE FRONT AND THE LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATE. LOOKING AHEAD, THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REBUILD WESTWARD INTO THE GULF BY SAT,
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE SE BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT
FOR FRESH WINDS PULSING OFF THE COAST OF YUCATAN IN THE EVENING.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH NEAR-GALE CONDITIONS SAMPLED IN
THE GULF OF VENEZUELA A LITTLE WHILE AGO. CONCURRENT ALTIMETER
SATELLITE DATA CONFIRMED ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AS WELL. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT 3-5 FT SEAS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN OFF PANAMA THIS MORNING ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH. LINGERING SAHARAN DUST OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS
INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EAST THROUGH LATE TODAY, ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY, ALTHOUGH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS MAY PULSE OFF
VENEZUELA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH
FRI. LOOKING AHEAD, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE MAY REBUILD BY SUN,
SUPPORTING FRESH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN BY SUN NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT A GALE WARNING IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST ATLANTIC.
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS MOVING NORTHEAST PAST BERMUDA,
WITH A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS, ROUGH SEAS, AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO WED SOUTHWEST OF
BERMUDA, NORTH OF 27N. A SECOND 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
MOVING FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO BERMUDA WITH A REINFORCING FRONT
CURRENTLY REACHING FROM 31N73W TO CAPE CANAVERAL, FLORIDA,
FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS.
FARTHER EAST, THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY 1033 MB PRESSURE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N32W. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND 6-9 FT SEAS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE FROM
NORTHWEST AFRICA TO THE CARIBBEAN, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND 5-6 FT ELSEWHERE TO INCLUDE ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONTS MERGE INTO ONE FRONT
FROM BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT. THE MERGED FRONT
WILL STALL FROM JUST EAST OF BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA BY THU NIGHT, THEN MEANDER NORTHWARD AS IT WEAKENS
THROUGH SUN.
CHRISTENSEN
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