273
AXNT20 KNHC 031709
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED JUN 3 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GALE WARNING EAST OF 35W: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1033
MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN NORTHWEST AFRICA RESULT IN STRONG TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE AGADIR HIGH SEAS MARINE ZONES. GALE-
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 04/0000 UTC
WITH SEVERE GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR MORE DETAILS, REFER
TO THE METEO- FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST LISTED ON THEIR WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 11N27W TO
NEAR 00N29W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN ALONG AND WITHIN 150
NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W, SOUTH OF 14N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ANALYZED ALONG 57W,
SOUTH OF 16N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 16N16W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 02N27W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 01N31W TO 00.5N42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W
AND 36W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GULF IS
INTERACTING WITH WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND A SURFACE
TROUGH, AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE NE GULF TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE GULF E
OF 92W. AWAY FROM CONVECTION, GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE GULF, EXCEPT
FOR AREAS N AND E OF THE FRONT WHERE FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND
4-6 FT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF
THIS MORNING WILL STALL FROM SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA THROUGH THU, THEN DISSIPATE GRADUALLY BY SAT. EXPECT
FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF THE
FRONT TODAY AND THU. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL EXTEND FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF TODAY, AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH THU. THE LOW PRESSURE MAY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
INTO THE LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH FRI. STRONG TO NEAR- GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF STARTING TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE FORMS. BY
FRI, THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH AND ENHANCE
THE ONGOING CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF, EVEN AS BOTH
THE FRONT AND THE LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATE. LOOKING AHEAD, THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REBUILD WESTWARD INTO THE GULF BY SAT,
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE SE BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT
FOR FRESH WINDS PULSING OFF THE COAST OF YUCATAN IN THE EVENING.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CONCURRENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA
CONFIRMED 7-10 FT SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL.
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT 3-6 FT SEAS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ACTIVE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH LATE TODAY, ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY, ALTHOUGH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS MAY
PULSE OFF VENEZUELA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS MAINLY AT NIGHT
THROUGH FRI. LOOKING AHEAD, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE MAY REBUILD BY SUN,
SUPPORTING FRESH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY SUN NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT A GALE WARNING IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST ATLANTIC.
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE ANALYZE IN THE WEST ATLANTIC. ONE FRONT
EXTENDS FROM S OF BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS, AND THE OTHER
FROM NEAR 31N72W TO NEAR VERO BEACH, FL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION IS HELPING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS A LARGE REGION N OF 23N BETWEEN 62W AND THE SE
US COAST, INCLUDING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE NORTH OF THESE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES, WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE PREVALENT TO THE S OF THESE FRONTS. SURFACE RIDGING
PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND 6-9 FT SEAS PREVAILING N OF
15N AND E OF 25W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINING ATLANTIC, ASIDE FROM AREAS W
OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
MOVING NORTHEAST PAST BERMUDA, WITH A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING TO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS,
ROUGH SEAS, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
INTO WED SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA, NORTH OF 27N. A SECOND 1013 MB LOW
PRESSURE AREA IS MOVING FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO BERMUDA WITH A
REINFORCING FRONT CURRENTLY REACHING FROM 31N73W TO CAPE
CANAVERAL, FLORIDA, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. THE FRONTS MERGE INTO ONE FRONT FROM
BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT. THE MERGED FRONT WILL
STALL FROM JUST EAST OF BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA BY THU NIGHT, THEN MEANDER NORTHWARD AS IT WEAKENS THROUGH
SUN.
ADAMS
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