051
AXNT20 KNHC 130359
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SAT JUN 13 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0355 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
ALONG 18W, SOUTH OF 14N, BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WAVE DIAGNOSTIC DATA. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
SOUTH OF 13N AND EAST OF 27W.
ANOTHER EASTERN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W, SOUTH OF 16N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W, SOUTH OF 16N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR
THE TROUGH AXIS.
THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN HAS
DISSIPATED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND WAVE DIAGNOSTIC DATA.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W, SOUTH OF 18N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
PRESENTLY OCCURRING NEAR THIS WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N32W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N34W TO 00N50W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE SEEN
NEAR THE ITCZ.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 25N
AND WEST OF 90W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND
A 1017 MB RIDGE IN THE NE GULF SUSTAIN FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE SE
WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 26N AND WEST OF
88W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORM
CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SW GULF, TO THE NE OF A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W AND
EXTENDING TO OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SHIFT NW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MOVE INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM COULD RE-EMERGE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE INTERACTING
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND A RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG SE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THROUGH SUN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
DIURNAL HEATING AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT ARE SUSTAINING A FEW SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CUBA, HISPANIOLA AND
NEARBY WATERS. THE DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS ALSO
PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS, SUPPORTING FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE CENTRAL AND SE
CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE NE CARIBBEAN.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG 28.5N
AND ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF AMERICA. THE RIDGE WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK TO SUPPORT A
LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. EXPECT HIGHEST
WINDS AND SEAS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS WILL ALSO PERSIST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN,
TO THE W OF 845W, INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS, THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. EXPECT ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ADJACENT YUCATAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY SAT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N38W TO 28N44W, FOLLOWED BY A
SURFACE TROUGH TO 30N52W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE TROUGH
AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS SOUTH OF 22N AND WEST OF 35W. MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 14N AND
EAST OF 25W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 25N WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG 28.5N
AND ACROSS THE NE GULF OF AMERICA, AND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR 31N56W,
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, IS
SHIFTING NE AND OUT OF THE FORECAST WATERS, AND WILL ALLOW THE
RIDGE TO REORGANIZE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MODERATE E TO SE TRADE WINDS S OF 22N AND A
GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUN. FRESH SW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW WATERS N OF 29N AND W OF 74W SUN
EVENING THROUGH TUE, AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SE
U.S. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING ACROSS WATERS NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
DELGADO
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