396
AXNT20 KNHC 132039
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SUN JUN 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 21/22W
S OF 15N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS
DISCUSSED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
ANOTHER EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 37W FROM
02N TO 16N, MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING WITH THIS WAVE.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 54W SOUTH OF
19N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING WITH THIS WAVE.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 80/81W SOUTH
OF 18N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. MOST CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE
IS IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC WATERS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 12.5N17W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N26W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N26W
TO 05N34W. IT RESUMES FROM 04N38W TO 00N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN
02W AND 30W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A PERSISTENT BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PRESENT IS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF JUST OFFSHORE MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM NE OF THE LOW. A
1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NE OF
THE LOW. LIGHT WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH CENTER.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT
RANGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF, AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND A RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG SE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE GULF TUE THROUGH THU,
AND IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WILL PROMOTE FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF, AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND SEAS OF 7-10 FT, PREVAIL OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL PREVAIL N OF THE AREA THROUGH SUN
TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT
HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PULSING WINDS TO
FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
NIGHTLY THROUGH THU. THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL REORGANIZE
SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON THEN SHIFT SLOWLY NE THROUGH MIDWEEK,
LEADING TO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS, ANCHORED BY A
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N58W AND ANOTHER 1026 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 31N30W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE HIGH CENTERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 20N.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL S OF 20N. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT
RANGE S OF 20N, AND 3-5 FT N OF 20N.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUN. THE RIDGE WILL REORGANIZE
SUN NIGHT AND MON, THEN SHIFT SLOWLY NE TUE THROUGH WED. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MODERATE E TO SE TRADE WINDS S OF 22N AND A
GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUN. FRESH SW WINDS
WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW WATERS N OF 29N AND W OF 74W
LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT, AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE SE U.S. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE EVENING ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA.
AL
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