743
AXNT20 KNHC 140409
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN JUN 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0355 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W, SOUTH OF 15N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 02N TO 09N AND EAST OF 33W .
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W, SOUTH OF 16N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING WITH THIS WAVE.
ANOTHER CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W, SOUTH OF
19N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY OCCURRING WITH THIS WAVE.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W, SOUTH OF 18N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. MOST CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE IS IN
THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC WATERS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N27W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N27W TO 03N29W AND THEN CONTINUES FROM
03N41W TO 00N50W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE SEEN NEAR THE ITCZ.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A 1018 MB RIDGE IN THE EASTERN GULF SUSTAIN
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SE WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS WEST OF A LINE FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO NE YUCATAN AND
NORTH OF 22N. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM JUST
OFFSHORE OF EASTERN MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BANDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS INLAND OVER
EASTERN MEXICO BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM COULD RE-EMERGE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF AMERICA ON TUE OR WED WHILE INTERACTING
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS,
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD INTO THE GULF TUE THROUGH THU, AND COMBINE WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WILL PROMOTE
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF, AND
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, NORTH OF 18N
AND BETWEEN 74W AND 82W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA, THE CAYMAN ISLANDS, AND JAMAICA.
SIMILAR STORMS ARE ALSO NOTED IN THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA, COSTA
RICA, AND NEARBY WATERS.
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
FORCES FRESH TO NEAR GALE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN, SOUTH OF 19N. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED WINDS UP TO 33 KT OFF
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 26N55W
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 28N AND INTO THE NE GULF OF
AMERICA. THE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUN
NIGHT TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT
HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PULSING WINDS TO
FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
NIGHTLY THROUGH THU. THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL REORGANIZE
SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE THEN SHIFT SLOWLY NE THROUGH MIDWEEK,
LEADING TO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY BROAD RIDGING
ALONG 27N, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS SOUTH OF 22N AND WEST OF 35W. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND
NORTH OF 17N AND EAST OF 25W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS
THROUGH 26N55W WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 28N AND INTO
THE NE GULF OF AMERICA, AND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL REORGANIZE SUN NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUE, THEN SHIFT SLOWLY NE THROUGH WED. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE E TO SE TRADE WINDS S OF 22N AND A GENTLE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUN EVENING, THEN BECOME SE TO
S WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. FRESH SW
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW WATERS N OF 29N AND W OF
74W LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT, THEN BECOME MODERATE WINDS THROUGH
WED, AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SE U.S. EXPECT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS
ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
DELGADO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page