088
AXNT20 KNHC 141800
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SUN JUN 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 28W SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 05N
TO 07N.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 44W SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
PRESENTLY OCCURRING NEAR THIS WAVE.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W SOUTH OF 18N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE
WAVE IS ALONG AND JUST INLAND THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN
58W AND 63W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W SOUTH OF 19N TO
INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS EAST
OF THE WAVE AS DISCUSSED BELOW UNDER THE CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16.5W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO
05N30W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04.5N30W TO 02N44W. IT CONTINUES
FROM 02N46W TO 01N50W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE W COAST OF AFRICA FROM 01.5N TO
11N EAST OF 18W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A RELATIVELY WEAK AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WESTWARD TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF, WITH A 1019
MB HIGH NEAR 27N87W. MEANWHILE, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
OVER EASTERN MEXICO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW
AND THE 1019 MB HIGH IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 5 TO 7 FT. THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TROUGH HAS MOVED OFFSHORE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. MODERATE OR WEAKER ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NW GULF FROM
27N TO 28N WEST OF 96W TO INLAND EASTERN TEXAS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY
IS FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 96W AND THE COAST OF MEXICO, EXCEPT TO
JUST INLAND MEXICO FROM NEAR VERACRUZ TO 23N. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF SOUTH OF 21.5N AND WEST OF 93W.
FOR THE FORECAST, DEVELOPMENT OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE LOW REMAINS
INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM COULD THEN RE-EMERGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF AMERICA AROUND MIDWEEK WHILE INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, BUT CONDITIONS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE GULF WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT, WHILE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THERE THROUGH MON. THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE GULF TUE THROUGH THU, AND
COMBINE WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO WILL PROMOTE FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF, AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH
26N55W WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA IS GENERALLY INDUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN SOUTH OF 18N.
SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 7 TO 10 FT IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL.
BUOY 42058 AT 15N75W IS REPORTING EAST WINDS OF 25 KT AND SEAS TO
NEAR 11 FT. ELSEWHERE, LATEST SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA PASSES
INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS TRADES. MODERATE SEAS ARE OVER
JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE BASIN, EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION,
WHERE LOWER SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE PRESENT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
PART OF THE SEA SOUTH OF 11N FROM 80W WEST TO ALONG AND JUST INLAND
THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED TO
THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH EARLY MON AND WILL SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. PULSING WINDS TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS NIGHTLY THROUGH THU. THE RIDGE WILL
REORGANIZE MON THROUGH EARLY TUE THEN SHIFT SLOWLY NE THROUGH THU,
LEADING TO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC BASIN ROUGHLY
ALONG 26N-27N EAST OF 43W AND ALONG 27N28N WEST OF 43W, STRETCHING
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH
CENTER NEAR 29N32W AND BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 27N53W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND RELATIVELY LOWER
PRESSURES IN THE TROPICAL REGION IS ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS SOUTH OF ABOUT 21N AND
WEST OF 35W, EXCEPT FROM 13N TO 25N FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO
35W WHERE FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS ARE PRESENT AS NOTED IN A
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA PASS FROM THIS MORNING. MODERATE SEAS
ARE IN THIS AREA AS WELL. OTHERWISE, A WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM NEAR 31N37W TO TO 26N46W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
PRESENT WITH THIS FEATURE. THE LATEST SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA
PASSES INDICATE MODERATE OR WEAKER ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ELSEWHERE
OVER THE BASIN. LATEST ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES ALONG WITH
RECENT BUOY REPORTS ARE INDICATING SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE NE GULF OF AMERICA.
THE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MON, THEN
REORGANIZE MON THROUGH EARLY TUE, THEN SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THU. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 22N, THEN BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH
THROUGH WED. GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS MON THROUGH
WED. FRESH SW WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW WATERS N OF 29N AND W OF
74W LATE SUN THROUGH EARLY MON, THEN EXPAND EASTWARD TO 70W THROUGH
EARLY WED, AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SE U.S. EXPECT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS
ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
AGUIRRE
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