499
AXNT20 KNHC 142038
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC MON JUN 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 29W SOUTH
OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 05N TO
09N.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 46/47W SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
PRESENTLY OCCURRING NEAR THIS WAVE.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65/66W SOUTH OF
18N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE IS ALONG AND JUST INLAND THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 62W AND 64W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 86W SOUTH
OF 19N TO INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT
10 TO 15 KT. MOST ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
IS IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXITS THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N16W AND
EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 06N24W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N24W TO 05N27W.
IT RESUMES FROM 04N31W TO 04N45W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION NOTED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 14N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF. A 1007 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES IS SUPPORTING MODERATE WINDS W OF 90W. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS E OF 90W. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT
RANGE W OF 90W, AND 1-2 FT E OF 90W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WHILE THE LOW REMAINS INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN
TEXAS. THE SYSTEM COULD THEN RE-EMERGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF AMERICA AROUND MIDWEEK WHILE INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, BUT CONDITIONS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE GULF WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT, WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THERE THROUGH MON. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE GULF TUE THROUGH THU, AND COMBINE WITH
LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WILL
PROMOTE FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF, AND
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND SEAS OF 8-10 FT PREVAIL OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT
ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS
OF 3-6 FT, ARE FOUND OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MON AND WILL SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. PULSING WINDS TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS NIGHTLY THROUGH THU. THE RIDGE WILL
REORGANIZE MON THROUGH EARLY TUE THEN SHIFT SLOWLY NE THROUGH THU,
LEADING TO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 20N, ANCHORED
BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 27N53W, AND A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 29N32W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, AND FALLING
PRESSURE OVER AFRICA WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER WESTERN AFRICA, IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF 20N AND E OF 20W TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT,
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE WATERS E OF 30W, AND S OF 20N. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 3-4 FT, PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MON, THEN REORGANIZE MON THROUGH EARLY
TUE, THEN SHIFT SLOWLY NE THROUGH THU. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE E TO SE TRADE WINDS S OF 22N, THEN BECOME MODERATE TO
FRESH THROUGH WED. GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS MON
THROUGH WED. FRESH SW WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW WATERS N OF 29N
AND W OF 74W LATE SUN THROUGH EARLY MON, THEN EXPAND EASTWARD TO
70W THROUGH EARLY WED, AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
SE U.S. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
AL
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