818
AXNT20 KNHC 161802
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE JUN 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 27.1N 97.8W AT
16/1800 UTC OR 50 NM SSW OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS, MOVING NE AT 5
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE THE TEXAS
COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY, MOVE ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE BACK INLAND IN
EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS OR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA LATE WEDNESDAY OR
EARLY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES BACK ON LAND. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND
12 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEXAS COAST THROUGH
MUCH OF LOUISIANA, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA, AND THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS TO LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST ONE
NHC FORECAST ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W, SOUTH OF 17N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 23W AND 33W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W, SOUTH OF 16N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT FROM 04N TO 09N AND BETWEEN 45W AND 57W.
A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W, SOUTH OF 17N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS.
ANOTHER CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W, SOUTH OF 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND SOUTH OF 11N AND W OF 80W, LIKELY
ENHANCED BY THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IN THE REGION.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN ALONG THE WAVE AXIS N OF 11N
TO ABOUT 16N.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N28W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N28W TO 04.5N46W AND THEN FROM 05N50W TO
06N58W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
FROM 06N TO 08.5N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE.
AWAY FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
ONE, FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT PREVAIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GULF W OF 88W. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE IS NEAR 27.0N
98.0W AT 11 AM EDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. ONE WILL MOVE TO 27.4N 97.2W THIS
EVENING, 28.2N 95.8W WED MORNING, 29.6N 93.9W WED EVENING, INLAND
TO 31.6N 91.7W THU MORNING, AND DISSIPATE THU EVENING. SWELLS
GENERATED BY THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OTHERWISE, A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE BASIN WILL SUSTAIN FRESH TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
THU NIGHT, AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER
THE EASTERN GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION ABOVE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, EASTERN CUBA, HISPANIOLA, AND
OFF THE COAST OF JAMAICA. ELSEWHERE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC AND THE COLOMBIA LOW SUPPORTS
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 3-6 FT SEAS
PREVAIL IN THE EASTERN AND NW CARIBBEAN. GENTLE TO MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN, IN
WATERS IMMEDIATELY S OF CUBA, AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WESTWARD ALONG 26N, ACROSS S FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
AMERICA, AND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THIS WEEKEND.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUSTAIN FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. PULSING WINDS AT FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS NIGHTLY THROUGH SAT, PULSING TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BECOME SE AT FRESH TO
STRONG SPEEDS WED THROUGH THU NIGHT, THEN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC,
EXTENDING FROM 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES,
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THEN WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS SOUTH OF 23N AND W
OF 30W. MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ALSO
OCCURRING NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 65W. NE WINDS AT FRESH TO
STRONG SPEEDS ARE CONFIRMED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS A REGION
N OF 20N AND E OF 20W, STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST OF
MOROCCO. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES AND 2 TO 5 FT SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE, PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1022 MB
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 26N60W WESTWARD ACROSS S FLORIDA, AND
WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRI, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN FRI NIGHT.
THE RELATED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 22N THROUGH FRI, DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS OFFSHORE OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA TO NEAR 68W ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD TO NEAR 65W THROUGH WED,
AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SAT AND STALL OFFSHORE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA TO BERMUDA BY SUN. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
ADAMS
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