103
AXNT20 KNHC 162346
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED JUN 17 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 27.6N 97.3W AT
16/0000 UTC OR 10 NM SSE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS, MOVING NE AT 5
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE
CURRENTLY AROUND 6-7 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 24N AND W OF 90W, WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION N OF 28N AND E OF 90W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE DISTURBANCE
SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST IN A FEW HOURS, MOVE ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON WED AND MOVE BACK INLAND IN
EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS OR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA LATE WED OR EARLY
THU. THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY ON WED. WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED ON
THU AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES BACK OVER LAND. POTENTIALLY LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING IS LIKELY THROUGH THU ACROSS
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, AND IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS ALABAMA,
GEORGIA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
PROLONGED RAINFALL MAY EXTEND THE FLOOD THREAT INTO THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST ONE
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W, SOUTH OF 18N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED
BELOW WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W, SOUTH OF 17N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED
BELOW WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66.5W, SOUTH OF 18N
NEAR SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VENEZUELA,
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED
BELOW WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.
ANOTHER CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W, SOUTH OF 19N OR NEAR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. NEARBY
CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED BELOW WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N28W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N28W TO 07N37W TO 04N48W AND THEN NEAR THE
COAST OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA FROM 05N50W TO 06N58W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 03N TO 09N
BETWEEN 20W AND 36W, AND FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 45W AND 57W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE.
AWAY FROM THE EFFECTS OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE, RIDGING
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC TO ACROSS FLORIDA TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH SE-S WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN,
EXCEPT SLIGHTLY WEAKER IN THE WESTERN GULF S OF 25N AND W OF 95W.
SEAS ARE 4-7 FT IN THE CENTRAL GULF, 4-6 FT IN THE WESTERN GULF,
AND 2-4 FT IN THE CENTRAL GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE WILL MOVE TO
27.9N 96.5W WED MORNING, 29.2N 94.6W WED AFTERNOON, INLAND TO
31.0N 92.5W THU MORNING, AND DISSIPATE THU AFTERNOON. SWELLS
GENERATED BY THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OTHERWISE, A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE BASIN WILL SUSTAIN FRESH TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT
THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT, AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, EASTERN CUBA, HISPANIOLA, AND OFF THE
COAST OF JAMAICA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC AND THE COLOMBIA LOW SUPPORTS FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS AND 6-8 FT SEAS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 3-6 FT SEAS PREVAIL IN THE
EASTERN AND NW CARIBBEAN. GENTLE TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN, IN WATERS IMMEDIATELY
S OF CUBA, AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION WILL SUSTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. PULSING WINDS AT FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NIGHTLY THROUGH
SAT, PULSING TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT. MODERATE
TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC,
EXTENDING FROM 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 30N28W TO 1022 MB HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR 27N59W AND THEN WESTWARD ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS SOUTH OF 21N AND W OF 35W. MODERATE
TO FRESH SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ALSO OCCURRING NORTH OF
25N AND WEST OF 65W. NE WINDS AT FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS ARE ACROSS
A REGION N OF 20N AND E OF 20W, STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING NEAR
THE COAST OF MOROCCO. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES AND 2-5 FT SEAS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST WATERS THROUGH FRI, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN FRI NIGHT. THE
RELATED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 22N THROUGH FRI, DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SAT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SW WINDS OFFSHORE OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA TO NEAR 74W WILL EXPAND EASTWARD TO NEAR 65W
THROUGH WED, AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SAT
AND STALL OFFSHORE NORTHEAST FLORIDA TO BERMUDA BY SUN. EXPECT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS
ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
LEWITSKY
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