779
AXNT20 KNHC 170559
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED JUN 17 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0555 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 27.7N 97.2W AT
17/0600 UTC OR 10 NM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS, MOVING NE AT 4
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE
CURRENTLY AROUND 9 FT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE NW GULF, WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE ALONG OR
ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TODAY. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS OR
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT. THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY.
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BY TONIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER
INLAND. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS NEAR
20 INCHES, THROUGH THURSDAY FROM THE MID AND UPPER TEXAS COAST
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA,
MISSISSIPPI, AND ALABAMA, ALONG WITH WESTERN PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS TO
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST ONE
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W, SOUTH OF 17N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT
FROM 04N TO 09N AND BETWEEN 28W AND 37W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W, SOUTH OF 17N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W, SOUTH OF 17N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED BELOW
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W, SOUTH OF 18N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N30W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N33W TO 00N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 10N AND EAST OF 28W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED SOUTH OF 03N AND BETWEEN 41W AND 46W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST.
THE DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST AND SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE NW GULF COMBINE TO PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS, WHILE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE. OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF PTC
ONE, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
OCCURRING OFF NORTHERN YUCATAN AND MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS IN THE WESTERN AND NE GULF. IN THE REST OF THE BASIN, LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ONE WILL MOVE NE AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE TEXAS
COAST THROUGH WED, REACHING NEAR 28.5N 95.6W WED MORNING AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, MOVE TO NEAR 30.2N 93.3W WED EVENING AS IT
BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, THEN CONTINUE
INLAND TO 32.1N 90.9W THU MORNING, BEFORE DISSIPATING THU EVENING
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. LARGE SW TO S SWELL GENERATED BY
THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND
DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. OTHERWISE, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE BASIN
WILL SUSTAIN FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF WED THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT, AND MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE FRI
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORCES FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GULF
OF HONDURAS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING
OFF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE EASTERN AND NW CARIBBEAN.
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF CUBA, WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
SOUTH OF 12N, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NORTH
OF THE AREA ALONG 27N-28N THROUGH SAT BEFORE WEAKENING SUN AND
MON, AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE RIDGE WILL SUSTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PULSING WINDS AT FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
NIGHTLY THROUGH SAT, PULSING TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WED NIGHT AND THU
NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. ACTIVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SW PORTIONS WED THROUGH THU
NIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THE BERMUDA-AZORES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF
INTEREST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-8 FT OFF
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SW WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF 27N AND WEST OF 65W.
MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF
5-8 FT ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 35W. IN THE FAR EAST,
MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT ARE PRESENT NORTH
OF 15N AND EAST OF 25W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
28N54W EXTENDS A RIDGE WESTWARD ALONG 27N AND ACROSS S FLORIDA,
AND WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRI, THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE
SE U.S COAST. THE RELATED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 22N THROUGH FRI,
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SW WINDS OFFSHORE OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TO NEAR 72W TONIGHT
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD TO NEAR 65W THROUGH WED, AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SAT AND STALL OFFSHORE NORTHEAST FLORIDA TO
BERMUDA BY SUN. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA.
DELGADO
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