707
AXNT20 KNHC 171024
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED JUN 17 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE IS CENTERED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
28.0N 96.7W AT 0900 UTC, OR 35 NM SW OF PORT O'CONNOR, TEXAS,
MOVING NE AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. PEAK
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 9 FT. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES 120 TO 360 NM TO THE E THROUGH SE OF
THE CENTER OF ONE, AND WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS
IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY, AND STRADDLE THE
COAST MOST OF THE DAY, BEFORE MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN
TEXAS OR LOUISIANA TONIGHT. ONE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY JUST BEFORE
LANDFALL. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOUISIANA
COAST TODAY FROM SABINE PASS TO MORGAN CITY WHERE A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT. WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BY TONIGHT
WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER INLAND ACROSS LOUISIANA. ONE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES, WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS NEAR 20 INCHES, THROUGH THURSDAY FROM THE
MID AND UPPER TEXAS COAST EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA, MISSISSIPPI, AND ALABAMA, ALONG
WITH WESTERN PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS TO LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST ONE
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA, ALONG 14W,
SOUTH OF 17N, MOVING WEST AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 12N E OF 19W TO THE COAST.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W, SOUTH OF 17N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT
FROM 04N TO 09N AND BETWEEN 30W AND 41W.
AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W, SOUTH OF 17N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FOLLOWS
THE WAVE FROM 06.5N TO 09.5N BETWEEN 45W AND 53W.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W, SOUTH OF 17N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W, SOUTH OF 18N
EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT.
THE WAVE IS ENHANCING MODERATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06.5N32W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W.
OTHER THAN CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 09N
BETWEEN 20W AND 30W, AND S OF 03N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST.
VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS COMBINING WITH A
MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EXTREME NW GULF, AND
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE, TO PRODUCE A LARGE CLUSTER OF
STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF WATERS, 120 NM EAST OF ONE.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE BASIN.
RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATE SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NW GULF NORTH OF 22N AND TO THE NORTH
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE WATERS AND
6 TO 9 FT WITHIN THE AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION. OUTSIDE OF THE
INFLUENCE OF PTC ONE, MODERATE SE TO S WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL W OF 85W, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS TO THE E OF 85W.
FOR THE FORECAST, POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE WILL MOVE NE AND
ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE TEXAS COAST TODAY, REACHING NEAR
29.1N 95.2W THIS AFTERNOON AS A TROPICAL STORM, AND THEN INLAND
NEAR 31.1N 92.8W TONIGHT AS A REMNANT LOW, BEFORE DISSIPATING THU
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. LARGE SW TO S WAVES GENERATED BY
THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND
DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. OTHERWISE, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE BASIN AND SUSTAIN FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF LATE WED THROUGH THU NIGHT, AND
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS
ALONG 27N-28N AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS PATTERN IS FORCING
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS TO 9 FT OCCURRING OFF NW
COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
FOUND IN THE EASTERN AND NW CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LEE OF CUBA, WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SOUTH OF 12N, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. A CLUSTER OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED WESTWARD OFF OF NW COLOMBIA AND
INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF PANAMA. A
LINGERING MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
MODERATE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
THE ADJACENT WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NORTH
OF THE AREA ALONG 27N-28N THROUGH EARLY SAT BEFORE WEAKENING SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MON, AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY OFFSHORE OF
THE SE U.S. COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE RIDGE WILL
SUSTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN
THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PULSING
WINDS AT FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NIGHTLY THROUGH SAT, PULSING
BRIEFLY TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT. MODERATE TO
FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SW PORTIONS WED THROUGH FRI AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THE BERMUDA-AZORES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF
INTEREST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC, AND IS INTERRUPTED ONLY BY
AN OLD FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM 31N42W TO
27N46W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS S OF 23N AND W OF 55W INTO THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS, WITH
THERMALLY ENHANCED STRONG TRADE WINDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT OFF
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SW WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF 27N AND WEST OF 72W.
MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF
5-8 FT ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 21N AND BETWEEN 55W AND 35W. IN THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC, MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-7
FT PREVAIL NORTH OF 15N AND EAST OF 25W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRI, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN FRI
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
OFFSHORE OF THE SE U.S COAST. THE RELATED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 22N
THROUGH FRI, DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH SW WINDS OFFSHORE OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TO NEAR
72W WILL EXPAND EASTWARD TO NEAR 65W THROUGH WED NIGHT, AS A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OFFSHORE EARLY SAT AND STALL OFFSHORE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY SUN. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
STRIPLING
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