655
AXNT20 KNHC 190508
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC FRI JUN 19 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 26.5W, SOUTH
OF 17N, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10-15 KT. ANY NEARBY CONVECTION
IS DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
ANOTHER ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 47W, SOUTH OF
17N, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. ANY NEARBY CONVECTION IS
DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 65W, SOUTH
OF 19N NEAR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO CENTRAL VENEZUELA, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN
S OF 14N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W.
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA AND MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR INFORMATION ON THIS WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA
NEAR 18N16W AND EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 06N28W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
06N28W TO 06.5N46W WHERE IT BECOMES ILL-DEFINED DUE TO A TROPICAL
WAVE TO THE WEST. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN
FROM 03N TO 11N AND E OF 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 45W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED IN THE ATLANTIC TO
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF ALONG 26N, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EMERGING OFF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF,
REACHING 8 FT OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND TO THE CENTRAL GULF. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER
PRESSURES OVER TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WILL GENERALLY
SUPPORT MOSTLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF THROUGH FRI. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WILL
CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY MON, THEN DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO
MODERATE SPEEDS AFTERWARD. WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF BECOME
LIGHT TO GENTLE IN SPEEDS BEGINNING FRI NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THE BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS
WESTWARD ALONG 27N-28N AND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE
GULF OF HONDURAS, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS PREVAIL IN THE EASTERN AND NW
CARIBBEAN. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-6 FT ARE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE NORTH OF
THE COLOMBIA LOW.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CHANGE
LITTLE INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE TO ITS SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHEST WINDS
AND SEAS EXPECTED OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PULSING WINDS AT
FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS NIGHTLY THROUGH MON, PULSING BRIEFLY TO NEAR
GALE- FORCE TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 18N WEST OF 80W
THROUGH MON NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A FRONTAL REMNANT TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N30W TO 26N44W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR THE TROUGH. THE REST OF THE
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 20N IS DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
BY A 1024 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N59W. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC
S OF 20N AS WELL AS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA, WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE OR WEAKER E WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS TO THE N OF 20N.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE BASIN WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FRI NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA DURING THE WEEKEND, THEN STALL AND WEAKEN. FRESH
TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF 30N AND EAST TO
NEAR 72W THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH NIGHTLY PULSING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SOUTH OF 22N WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
ADAMS
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