072
AXNT20 KNHC 191059
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC FRI JUN 19 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 28W FROM
02N TO 18N MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NEAR THE WAVE FROM 07N TO 09N, AND WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 49W FROM 02N
TO 18N MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 08N TO 12N.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 65W/66W
SOUTH OF 19N NEAR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO CENTRAL VENEZUELA. IT
IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 65W AND 69W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N23W AND
06N35W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N35W TO 07N40W AND TO JUST EAST
OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N48W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 04N TO 15N
AND REACHES WEST TO NEAR 19N. THIS CONVECTION IS IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-46W, AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-37W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG 26N FROM A SUBTROPICAL
HIGH LOCATED IN THE ATLANTIC TO ACROSS FLORIDA, AND TO THE CENTRAL
GULF. A TROUGH HAS EMERGED OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IT IS ANALYZED
FROM NEAR 25N90W TO JUST INLAND MEXICO AT 19N93W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 4 TO 7 FT OVER
MOST OF THE GULF, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN SPOTS OVER
THE NW AND WEST-CENTRAL GULF SECTIONS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES OVER TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT MOSTLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TODAY. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL GULF WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY MON, THEN
DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS AFTERWARD. WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF BECOME LIGHT TO GENTLE IN SPEEDS BEGINNING TONIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BROAD CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS GENERALLY SUSTAINING
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
THE GULF OF HONDURAS, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SEA AS NOTED BY SATELLITE ALTIMETER
DATA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT ARE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOTED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS RELATED TO THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH THAT PROTRUDES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA
AND TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N WEST OF 74W TO ALONG
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL CHANGE LITTLE INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE TO ITS SOUTH WILL
MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHEST
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PULSING WINDS
AT FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NIGHTLY THROUGH MON, PULSING BRIEFLY TO
NEAR GALE-FORCE TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 18N WEST OF 80W THROUGH
MON NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A RATHER ILL-DEFINED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N30W TO 26N38W AND TO
NEAR 26N46W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR THE TROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1023 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 27N58W. HIGH PRESSURE
COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF ABOUT 20N. THE RELATED PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS GENERALLY ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS TO EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SOUTH
ABOUT 21N AS WELL AS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. LIGHT TO GENTLE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NORTH OF 21N EAST OF 73W WHILE FRESH
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE OVER THE WATERS EAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA TO NEAR
73W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT NORTH OF 21N, EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2 TO
3 FT FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 57W AND 76W, AND OVER THE WATERS WEST
OF THE BAHAMAS, INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BASIN
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA DURING THE WEEKEND, THEN STALL AND WEAKEN. FRESH
TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF 30N AND EAST TO
NEAR 72W THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH NIGHTLY PULSING FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS SOUTH OF 22N WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AGUIRRE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page