957
AXNT20 KNHC 192234
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI JUN 19 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 1800 UTC ANALYSIS/SURFACE MAP
ALONG 18W S OF 15N. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND MODEL DIAGNOSTIC GUIDANCES. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS EXHIBITING
SOME CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 23W. SIMILAR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO NOTED OVER W AFRICA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 16N MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WHERE THE WAVE MEETS THE
MONSOON TROUGH.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 18N MOVING WEST AT 15 TO
20 KT. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOWS AN INVERTED "V"
PATTERN, PARTICULARLY FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 48W AND 57W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AT 10 TO
15 KT. ITS AXIS IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 17N. THE WAVE APPEARS TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA, AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 08N27W, THEN
WESTWARD TO 07N40W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N40W TO 07N50W.
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA IS RELATED TO THE
TROPICAL WAVES DESCRIBED ABOVE.
..GULF OF AMERICA
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF
REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES
ACROSS MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO
S WINDS ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL GULF, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT W OF 90W, AND
3 TO 5 FT E OF 90W, EXCEPT 1 TO 3 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF WEST FLORIDA SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY, AND BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST AND ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE (THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR). SIMILAR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS ALSO NOTED OVER PARTS OF THE STATE OF FLORIDA.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES OVER TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT MOSTLY FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. THESE WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WILL DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE
SPEEDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO GENTLE TONIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND
LOWER PRESSURES IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS GENERALLY SUSTAINING
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE AN
ALTIMETER PASS INDICATES SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT. SIMILAR WINDS SPEEDS
ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 85W, INCLUDING
THE GULF OF HONDURAS, WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.
SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FLARED-UP OVER PARTS OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES LIKELY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING, LOCAL SEA BREEZES AND
MOUNTAIN SLOPE LIFTING.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF THE AREA
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NIGHTLY THROUGH
MON, PULSING BRIEFLY TO NEAR GALE-FORCE TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
THROUGH MON NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING WESTWARD BETWEEN W AFRICA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES. PLEASE, SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC FORECAST REGION, WITH
A 1024 MB CENTER NEAR 28N57W. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM,
A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED N OF 22N AND E OF
70W WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA TO NEAR 70W. SEAS ARE IN GENERAL MODERATE
WITH THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES PREVAIL OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE BASIN WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
DURING THE WEEKEND, THEN STALL AND WEAKEN. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF 30N AND W OF 72W THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG SOUTH OF 22N INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
GR
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