152
AXNT20 KNHC 200505
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SAT JUN 20 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W, S OF 16N. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 10N AND E OF 25W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 16N MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND
40W.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 18N MOVING WEST AT AROUND
20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 08N TO 12N
BETWEEN 48W AND 57W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN INLAND OVER NE
SOUTH AMERICA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AT 15 TO 20 KT.
ITS AXIS IS ALONG 71W S OF 17N. THE WAVE APPEARS TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA, AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 08N27W, THEN
WESTWARD TO 07N41W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N41W TO 07N53W. MOST
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA IS RELATED TO THE
TROPICAL WAVES DESCRIBED ABOVE.
..GULF OF AMERICA
RIDGING STEMMING FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC EXPANDS INTO
THE GULF. THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A TROUGH ALONG
THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
PULSING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF W OF 90W,
WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL E OF 90W WITH A
1018 MB HIGH ANALYZED IN THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN GULF WHERE SLIGHT
SEAS PREVAIL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE FAR SE GULF AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES OVER AND JUST N OF THE REGION.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES
OVER TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT MOSTLY
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. THE FRESH
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WILL DIMINISH TO GENTLE
TO MODERATE SPEEDS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS THERE THROUGH LATE MON. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY
MIDWEEK, WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE BASIN AT THAT TIME.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND THE COLOMBIA LOW SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND
6-8 FT SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS PREVAIL IN THE
EASTERN AND NW CARIBBEAN. GENTLE TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
2-5 FT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF THE AREA
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NIGHTLY THROUGH
MON, PULSING BRIEFLY TO NEAR GALE- FORCE TONIGHT. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING WESTWARD BETWEEN W AFRICA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC FORECAST REGION, WITH A 1024
MB CENTER NEAR 28N58W. FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH AND THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGE AXIS SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC S OF 20N AS WELL AS OVER THE WATERS
BETWEEN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS
IN A REGION FROM 18N TO 25N AND E OF 20W. GENTLE TO MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING N OF THE BAHAMAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER AND JUST N OF THE REGION.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE BASIN WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
ON SAT, THEN STALL AND LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS NORTH OF 30N AND BETWEEN 77W AND 70W
WILL DIMINISH EARLY SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE
TO STRONG SOUTH OF 22N INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN BE AT MOSTLY
FRESH SPEEDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ADAMS
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