895
AXNT20 KNHC 201637
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SAT JUN 20 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1637 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 22.5W
FROM 03N TO 15.5N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN 26W AND
THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 37W FROM 02N
TO 16N MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 00N TO 05N BETWEEN 30W AND 39W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 59W SOUTH OF
18N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEPICTED FROM 08.5N
TO 16.5N BETWEEN 51W AND 62W. THIS IS WAVE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OVER THE AREA.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78.5W SOUTH OF 18N. IT
IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING
WITH AN UPPER- LEVEL LOW, WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION SOUTH OF 18N AND WEST OF 76W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 19N16.5W,
AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N25W TO 08N40W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 10N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 01N TO 09N BETWEEN 26W AND 30W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND TO THE CENTRAL GULF. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE, AND THE RELATIVELY LOWER
PRESSURES OVER TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO HAS INDUCED MODERATE
TO FRESH SE WINDS WEST OF 88W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT WITH THESE
WINDS. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ALONG WITH SEAS 1
TO 4 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFFSHORE THE
TEXAS AND NE MEXICO COASTS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS WESTWARD
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND TO THE CENTRAL
GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES OVER TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WILL
GENERALLY SUPPORT MOSTLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF WILL SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS THERE
THROUGH LATE MON. A NEW HIGH CENTER WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF BY MIDWEEK, WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF THE BASIN AT THAT TIME.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE BASIN.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
IS SUSTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 6
TO 9 FT. FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS
SURROUNDING WATERS. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT OVER THIS AREA. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN EAST SWELL ARE
OVER THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE SEA
ALONG WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF THE AREA
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NIGHTLY WELL INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH LATE MON, AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE BASIN THROUGH LATE WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE WAVE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING WESTWARD BETWEEN WEST AFRICA AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
DETAILS ON THESE FEATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC FORECAST REGION, WITH A 1022
MB HIGH CENTER ANALYZED NEAR 27N55W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH,
INCLUDING NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES, IS SUSTAINING MOSTLY MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS
SOUTH OF ABOUT 22N AS WELL AS OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 5
TO 8 FT OVER THESE WATERS. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL ALONG WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA AND ANDROS ISLAND. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS SEEN NORTH OF 29N
BETWEEN 72W AND 75W AS A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
EASTWARD EAST OF OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE BASIN. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY, THEN STALL AND LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT INTO SUN. FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN
65W AND 74W WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG SOUTH OF 22N INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THEN BE AT MOSTLY FRESH SPEEDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
KRV
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