816
AXNT20 KNHC 211056
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SUN JUN 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 27W FROM
03N TO 16N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WELL-
DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH A ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
MAXIMUM AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (MIMIC-TPW)
ANIMATION IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N
TO 07N BETWEEN 24W AND 30W.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 42W FROM 02N
TO 17N MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 08N TO 10N.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 64W/65W
SOUTH OF 19N TO INLAND VENEZUELA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE
AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL INLAND VENEZUELA WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF
THE WAVE AXIS.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE MOVED INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA
NEAR 87W SOUTH OF SOUTH OF 19N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 KT.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE IS HELPING TO
SUSTAIN SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EAST
OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM ALONG THE EASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS NORTH TO 19N BETWEEN THE WAVE AND 83W. FOR FUTURE
INFORMATION ON THIS WAVE, PLEASE SEE THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION (TWDEP).
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 19N16W,
AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N25W AND WESTWARD TO 07N35W TO
07N41W AND TO 06N44W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 30W-35W, AND
WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 38W-41W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND TO THE CENTRAL GULF, REINFORCED BY
A 1016 MB HIGH IN THE EASTERN GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND THE RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES OVER TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO HAS INDUCED MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST
WINDS WEST OF ABOUT 88W ALONG WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ALONG WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST INLAND
THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 20N TO 26N SUPPORTED MAINLY BY A MID-
LEVEL LOW FEATURE AND A NEARBY SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES OVER TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO GENTLE
TO MODERATE SPEEDS. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL BE WITH THESE
WINDS. LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH SLIGHT SEAS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF THROUGH THU NIGHT AS A NEW HIGH CENTER BECOMES SITUATED OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE BASIN.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS NORTH OF THE BASIN OVER CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY
ALLOW FOR FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND ALSO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 19N THROUGH MON.
SEAS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN WATERS ARE 7 TO 11 FT AS
CONFIRMED BY RECENT SATELLITE ALTIMETER PASSES AND A FEW BUOY
OBSERVATIONS. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT SOUTH OF 19N WEST OF 80W.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH SEAS
OF 5 TO 7 FT, EXCEPT FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CUBA TO
19N.
AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTION OF THE SEA SOUTH OF 12N
AND WEST OF 78W TO INLAND PANAMA, PRIMARILY DUE TO THE EASTERN
SEGMENT OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH THAT REACHES INTO THAT
PART OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF THE
AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRADE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE BASIN OVER A LARGE AREA SOUTH OF 15N, INCLUDING
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA STARTING
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 13 FT WITH
THESE WINDS. PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NIGHTLY WELL INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 65W
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING,
AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE BASIN THROUGH LATE WED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF THE WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA, WITH TRAILING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTS
OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA, AND EXTENDING
OFFSHORE TO NEAR 81W.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 HIGH CENTER AT
28N53W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF ABOUT 19N. THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS NEAR 26N STRETCHES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
25N/26N TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE RELATED
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GENERALLY SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF ABOUT
22N AS INDICATED BY OVERNIGHT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA. GENTLE
TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NORTH OF 22N ALONG WITH SEAS
OF 3 TO 5 FT IN SOUTHEAST SWELL WEST OF 55W, EXCEPT MIXED WITH
NORTHWEST SWELL NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 55W AND 74W, AND PRIMARILY
IN NORTHWEST SWELL EAST OF 55W. IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA,
A STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 32N30W TO NEAR 31N39W. NO CONVECTION IS
PRESENT WITH THIS FEATURE. A TROUGH TO ITS SOUTHWEST IS ANALYZED
FROM NEAR 31N29W TO 28N35W AND TO 27N39W. ISOLATED MOSTLY LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TROUGH.
UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST ARE SUSTAINING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 70W AND
78W. A BROAD MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS HELPED TO INDUCE AN
AREA OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED PATCHES OF RAIN AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES, ROUGHLY FROM 17N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE WEAK RIDGE ALONG 25N/26N WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH TODAY, AND CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THU NIGHT AS
SURFACE TROUGHING LINGERS NEAR AND OFFSHORE FLORIDA. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 24N WILL PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS BETWEEN
THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AGUIRRE
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