093
AXNT20 KNHC 211657
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SUN JUN 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1656 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 28.5W FROM
03N TO 16N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 25W AND 33W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 43.5W FROM
02N TO 17N MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 00N TO 08N BETWEEN 40W AND THE WAVE
AXIS.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 66W SOUTH
OF 19N TO INLAND VENEZUELA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE AXIS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 15.5N17W,
AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N27W AND TO NEAR 05N43.5W, WHERE
IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO NEAR 06N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 33W AND 38W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A RIDGING STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO ACROSS
FLORIDA AND TO THE CENTRAL GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES OVER TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO HAS INDUCED MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS
WEST OF ABOUT 90W ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ALONG WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE NW GULF, NORTH OF 26.5N AND
WEST OF 91W.
FOR THE FORECAST, RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE NE GULF FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES OVER
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS. SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL BE WITH THESE WINDS. LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
SLIGHT SEAS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THU NIGHT AS A
NEW HIGH CENTER BECOMES SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE BASIN.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS NORTH OF THE BASIN OVER CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY
ALLOW FOR FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
BASIN WATERS ARE 6 TO 10 FT. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT SOUTH OF 21N AND WEST
OF 83W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ALONG
WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT, EXCEPT FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT OVER THE WATERS SOUTH AND
EAST OF CUBA TO NEAR 21N. AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
SECTION OF THE SEA SOUTH OF 14N AND WEST OF 77W, PRIMARILY DUE TO
THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH THAT
REACHES INTO THAT PART OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF THE AREA
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR
GALE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN OVER A LARGE AREA
SOUTH OF 15N, INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE
GULF OF VENEZUELA STARTING MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
AROUND 13 FT WITH THESE WINDS. PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
NIGHTLY WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE BASIN THROUGH
LATE WED, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY
EAST OF THE WAVE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1024 HIGH CENTER AT
28N45W COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF ABOUT 18N. THE RELATED PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC SOUTH
OF ABOUT 23N ALONG WITH SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE
VARIABLE WINDS ARE NORTH OF 23N AND WEST OF 35W ALONG WITH SEAS
OF 3 TO 4 FT. UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST ARE SUSTAINING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 27.5N BETWEEN 65W AND 78W. A BROAD MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS HELPED TO INDUCE AN AREA OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED PATCHES OF RAIN OVER THE WATERS NORTHEAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES, ROUGHLY FROM 17N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG
26N WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH TODAY, AND CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THU
NIGHT AS SURFACE TROUGHING LINGERS NEAR AND OFFSHORE FLORIDA.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 24N WILL PULSE TO STRONG
SPEEDS BETWEEN THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
KRV
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