113
AXNT20 KNHC 212107
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC MON JUN 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 31W FROM 03N
TO 18N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 16N BETWEEN 25W AND 35W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 46W FROM 02N
TO 18N MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED NEAR THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 68W SOUTH
OF 20N TO INLAND VENEZUELA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE FROM 12N
TO 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 15N16W,
AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N25W AND TO NEAR 06N40W, WHERE
IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 12W AND 20W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF NEAR
28N85W, WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING GENTLE BREEZES AND 1-3 FT OVER
THE EASTERN GULF, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS AND 4-6
FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE NE GULF FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES OVER
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS. SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL BE WITH THESE WINDS. LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
SLIGHT SEAS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH E
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, AND FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE
WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 7-10 FT OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN,
AND 5-7 FT ELSEWHERE. IN ADDITION TO THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE, TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN EASTERN
PANAMA AND NORTHEAST NICARAGUA, AND BETWEEN EASTERN HONDURAS AND
THE SOUTHEAST YUCATAN PENINSULA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
NEAR GALE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN OVER A LARGE
AREA SOUTH OF 15N, INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN
THE GULF OF VENEZUELA STARTING MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 13 FT WITH THESE WINDS. PULSING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS NIGHTLY WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1025 HIGH CENTER AT
33N37W COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF ABOUT 18N. THE RELATED PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC
SOUTH OF ABOUT 22N ALONG WITH SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE
VARIABLE WINDS ARE NORTH OF 22N AND WEST OF 35W ALONG WITH SEAS
OF 3 TO 4 FT. UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST ARE SUSTAINING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LINGER NEAR AND
OFFSHORE FLORIDA THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 24N WILL PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS BETWEEN THE
TURKS AND CAICOS AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CHRISTENSEN
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