733
AXNT20 KNHC 220503
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON JUN 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 33W FROM 02N
TO 16N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W
AND 40W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 46W FROM 01N
TO 16N MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED NEAR THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 69W SOUTH
OF 18N TO INLAND VENEZUELA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15
KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED NEAR THIS TROPICAL
WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 16N16W,
AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N34W AND TO NEAR 07N44W. NO ITCZ
IS ANALYZED AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION IN THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
SEEN FROM 02N TO 10N AND E OF 26W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF NEAR
26N85W, WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING GENTLE BREEZES AND 1-4 FT OVER
THE EASTERN GULF, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS AND 4-6
FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF. DECAYING CONVECTION IS SEEN IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY OFF THE NW COAST OF CUBA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN THIS
WEEK. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL PULSE OFF
YUCATAN NIGHTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS. SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL BE WITH THESE WINDS. LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
SLIGHT SEAS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA,
THE COLOMBIA LOW, AND THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS, STRONGEST OFFSHORE
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SW AND NW CARIBBEAN.
GENTLE TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 5-8
FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N, AND 2-5 FT ELSEWHERE.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENT SURFACE WINDS SUPPORT
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM GUATEMALA SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN, INCLUDING
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
NEAR GALE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN OVER A LARGE
AREA SOUTH OF 15N, INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN
THE GULF OF VENEZUELA STARTING MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 13 FT WITH THESE WINDS. LASTLY,
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO 10 FT ARE ALSO
FORECAST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
BROAD RIDGING STEMMING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 35N34W EXPANDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF ABOUT
22N ALONG WITH SEAS 5 TO 8 FT, AS WELL AS N OF 22N AND E OF 25W.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE CONFIRMED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA S OF
20N AND W OF 50W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. ANOTHER, SMALLER AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IS OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA. GENTLE TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE NORTH OF 22N
AND WEST OF 25W ALONG WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FT. UPPER- LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST ARE SUSTAINING AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL PULSE NIGHTLY FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS OFF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND SEAS MAY
BUILD UP TO 8 FT. MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
ADAMS
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