836
AXNT20 KNHC 221629
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON JUN 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1629 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS IT AXIS ALONG 16.5W, SOUTH
OF 17N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 04N TO 11.5N AND
EAST OF 25.5W.
ANOTHER EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 37W,
SOUTH OF 16N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED FROM 07N TO 10N AND BETWEEN
35.5W AND 40.5W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 49W, SOUTH OF
16N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED NEAR THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 75W, SOUTH
OF 19N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 17N17W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N30W AND TO 04N46.5W. PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT CONVECTION NEAR THE AREA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES EXTENDS A
RIDGE TO THE GULF WATERS, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WEST OF 88W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN THIS
WEEK. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL PULSE OFF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NIGHTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS. SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL BE WITH THESE WINDS. LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 18N. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST SEAS ARE FOUND OFF NW COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION TO THE END OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
NORTH OF THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
NEAR GALE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN OVER A LARGE
AREA SOUTH OF 15N, INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN
THE GULF OF VENEZUELA TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD TO AROUND 13 FT WITH THESE WINDS. PULSING FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS NIGHTLY. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES
DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT SOUTH OF
23N AND WEST OF 35W. FARTHER EAST, FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE FOUND FROM 14N TO 27N AND EAST OF 35W.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL
PULSE NIGHTLY FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS OFF NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA AND SEAS MAY BUILD UP TO 8 FT. MODERATE OR LIGHTER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
KRV
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