104
AXNT20 KNHC 222252
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC TUE JUN 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS IT AXIS ALONG 17W, SOUTH OF
16N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 14N AND EAST
OF 27W.
ANOTHER EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 39W,
SOUTH OF 16N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
WAVE.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 51W, SOUTH OF
17N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 50W-56W.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 77W, SOUTH
OF 19N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 17N16W ALONG THE COAST
OF MAURITANIA AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 14N
AND EAST OF 27W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE NE GULF CONTRIBUTING TOWARD
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT IN THE E
GULF OF 4-6 FT IN THE W GULF. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN THIS WEEK.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL PULSE OFF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NIGHTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS. SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL BE WITH THESE WINDS. LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA AND A
1010 MB COLOMBIAN LOW IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE, THE
TRADES ARE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH. SEAS ARE 7-9 FT OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 3-6 FT ELSEWHERE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR
GALE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN OVER A LARGE AREA
SOUTH OF 15N, INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE
GULF OF VENEZUELA TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO AROUND 13 FT WITH THESE WINDS. PULSING FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NIGHTLY. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB BERMUDA-AZORES
HIGH NEAR 34N35W TO 26N80W IN THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
FORCING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES SOUTH OF 22N.
FROM 15N-23N EAST OF 35W, THE NE TRADES ARE FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG. FINALLY, THE TRADES ARE FRESH TO STRONG JUST NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER. SEAS ARE 6-8
FT IN THE AREAS OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND 3-6 FT ELSEWHERE.
NO OTHER DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AWAY FROM THE TWO
CONVECTIVELY- ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE ATLANTIC.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL PULSE NIGHTLY
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS OFF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND SEAS
MAY BUILD UP TO 8 FT. MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
LANDSEA
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