599
AXNT20 KNHC 231643
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE JUN 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1643| UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 24W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD, AND
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 19W AND 31W. ANOTHER PERTURBATION
BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL MERGE WITH THE WAVE LATER TODAY.
AN EASTERN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 47.5W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD, AND
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
SEEN FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 58.5W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 07N
TO 11N BETWEEN 51W AND 61W.
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BEFORE THIS
ANALYSIS HAS NOW TRANSITIONED INTO THE EAST PACIFIC. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THIS WAVE, PLEASE READ THE TWDEP.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 19N17W, THEN
CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 02N36W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM
02N36W TO 03N49W. CONVECTION NEAR THESE AREAS IS DISCUSSED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 12N AND WEST
OF 77W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GULF
TO BEYOND NEAR VERACRUZ, MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. OTHERWISE, A 1021 MB HIGH AT THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 1
TO 3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE
TO S WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN GULF,
INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF NEAR
27.5N85.5W, AND WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THIS TIME, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG NE
TO E WINDS PULSING OFF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NIGHTLY
THROUGH WED NIGHT, THEN MAINLY FRESH WINDS THERE AFTERWARD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE NEAR 26N CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A ROBUST
TRADE-WIND REGIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. CONVERGENT TRADES ARE
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS, AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. REFER TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. STRONG WITH LOCALLY NEAR-GALE NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 12 TO
14 FT ARE PRESENT AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN, WHILE FRESH TO
STRONG E WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FT SEAS EXIST AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL
BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE E WINDS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FT ARE NOTED
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS
WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE BASIN, INCLUDING
THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC E OF BERMUDA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE CENTRAL
BASIN THROUGH WED MORNING, THEN BECOME CONFINED TO THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL BASIN WED AND WED NIGHT BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD AGAIN
THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT WINDS NEAR-GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA, DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS, EXCEPT FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. PULSING FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS NIGHTLY. FRESH TRADES WITH ROUGH SEAS SHOULD
PERSIST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH WED MORNING,
DIMINISHING TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS AFTERWARD.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 26N61W IS TRIGGERING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W. REFER TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL
WEATHER IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC E OF BERMUDA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA. THIS FEATURE IS
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO
6 FT, NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 35W AND THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST/BAHAMAS. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 08N TO 22N BETWEEN
35W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADES AND
6 TO 9 FT SEAS ARE SEEN. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS
AT 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE N COAST OF
HISPANIOLA EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED S OF 22N THROUGH THU. MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
KRV
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