923
AXNT20 KNHC 240616
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED JUN 24 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0550 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF AN EASTERN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 28W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 24W AND 33W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 55W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 59W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 63W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 59W AND 66W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 15N16W AND
CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N39W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N39W TO
05N52W. FOR INFORMATION ON CONVECTION, SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION ABOVE.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA, ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N91W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
ARE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 24N AND E OF 94W. A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING MODERATE E TO SE WINDS W OF 94W WHILE A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS OFF
WESTERN YUCATAN. OTHERWISE, HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ONGOING
OFFSHORE VERACRUZ LIKELY GENERATING GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WESTERN END OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE,
NEAR THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF BASIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THIS TIME, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E WINDS PULSING OFF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA NIGHTLY THROUGH WED NIGHT, THEN MAINLY FRESH WINDS THERE
AFTERWARD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM EAST OF
BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING
FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH
SEAS IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE ONGOING IN
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHILE E WINDS OF THE SAME MAGNITUDE ARE ALSO
ONGOING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND
MODERATE SEAS TO 7 FT ARE ACROSS THE E BASIN. MODERATE OR WEAKER
NE TO E WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE N OF
THE REGION AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE CENTRAL BASIN THROUGH WED
MORNING, THEN BECOME CONFINED TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN WED AND
WED NIGHT BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD AGAIN THU THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT WINDS AT NEAR-GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF NORTHWESTERN
COLOMBIA, DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, EXCEPT FRI
IN WHICH WINDS WILL STAY AT NEAR-GALE FORCE. PULSING FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS NIGHTLY THROUGH SAT NIGHT. FRESH TRADES WITH
ROUGH SEAS SHOULD PERSIST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH
EARLY THU MORNING, DIMINISHING TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
AFTERWARD.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 20N AND
SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT
FOR FRESH NE TO E WINDS N OF HISPANIOLA. IN THE TROPICS, THE
TROPICAL WAVES ARE SUPPORTING 7 TO 8 FT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE TAIL END OF A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS OFF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM EAST OF BERMUDA INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA
WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF 22N THROUGH THU
BEFORE DIMINISHING. MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
RAMOS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page