298
AXNT20 KNHC 241032
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED JUN 24 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 30W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 25W AND
37W.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 56W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 55W AND 59W.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 63W FROM THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. IT IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA,
AND NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR BISSAU, THEN RUNS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N31W. AN ITCZ
CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 05N31W TO NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF
BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS SEEN SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 05N TO 09N
BETWEEN 15W AND THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS BRINGING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARRIBBEAN WATERS NEAR COSTA
RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A MODEST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO SOUTH OF TAMPICO, MEXICO. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVIDENT AT THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE. OTHERWISE, A 1021 MB HIGH AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REST OF THE GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND 3 TO 5
FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WESTERN END OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE,
NEAR THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF BASIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THIS TIME, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS PULSING OFF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA NIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 27N
CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN A ROBUST TRADE-WIND PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. CONVERGENT TRADES ARE CAUSING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR JAMAICA AND THE ISLAND OF YOUTH. REFER TO
THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NE TO E WINDS
AND SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FT ARE PRESENT AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN,
WHILE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS WITH 7 TO 9 FT SEAS
DOMINATE THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND PART OF THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT PERSIST AT
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO E WINDS AND 2 TO 4
FT SEAS ARE FOUND AT THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY TRADES AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE CENTRAL BASIN THROUGH THIS MORNING,
THEN BECOME CONFINED TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD AGAIN THU THROUGH SAT.
EXPECT WINDS AT NEAR-GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA,
DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND ALSO ON FRI. ON
FRI NIGHT, THESE WINDS MIGHT PEAK AT GALE-FORCE. PULSING FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS NIGHTLY THROUGH SAT NIGHT. FRESH TRADES WITH
ROUGH SEAS SHOULD PERSIST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH
EARLY THU MORNING, DIMINISHING TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
AFTERWARD.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA, AND BETWEEN
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST, AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N64W IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W. WELL TO THE SOUTH,
CONVERGENT TRADE WINDS ARE PRODUCING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 105 NM OF 07N51W. REFER TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE NOTED
EAST OF FLORIDA, NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. OTHERWISE, A
BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM EAST OF BERMUDA
INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE
WINDS AND 3 TO 6 FT SEAS NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 35W AND THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA, EXCEPT SW TO NW WINDS ADJACENT TO SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM
07N TO 22N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE TO FRESH
NE TO E TRADES AND SEAS AT 7 TO 9 FT EXIST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W, GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO SE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OFF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA THROUGH THU. OTHERWISE, THE BROAD RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST
OF HISPANIOLA EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF 22N THROUGH THU BEFORE
DIMINISHING. MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
CHAN
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