567
AXNT20 KNHC 241710
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED JUN 24 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1710 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 31.5W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 39W.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 61W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD. THIS WAVE WAS REPOSITIONED THIS MORNING BASED ON WAVE
DIAGNOSTICS TOOLS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 57W
AND 65W.
AN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 71W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THIS WAVE WAS REPOSITIONED THIS
MORNING BASED ON WAVE DIAGNOSTICS TOOLS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 13N TO 15N
BETWEEN 67.5W AND 72.5W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W, THEN RUNS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N37W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 05N37W
TO NEAR 05N50.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS SEEN SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 04N TO 09N
AND WEST OF 19W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS BRINGING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARRIBBEAN WATERS NEAR PANAMA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF CEDAR KEY, FLORIDA TO
BILOXI, MISSISSIPPI. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS DEPICTED IN
ASSOCIATION TO THIS FRONT. A MODEST UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVIDENT AT THE CENTRAL BAY
OF CAMPECHE. OTHERWISE, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THEN WEAKLY TO THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH- CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF. MAINLY MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS PREVAIL
FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THIS TIME, EXCEPT
FOR FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS PULSING OFF THE
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD INTO THE NE GULF ALONG 29N THIS
MORNING, BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LIFTS N OF THE GULF TONIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 28N
CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN A ROBUST TRADE-WIND PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CAUSING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR JAMAICA AND THE ISLAND OF YOUTH. REFER TO
THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NE
TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FT ARE PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
PART OF THE BASIN, WHILE FRESH E WINDS ALONG WITH 5 TO 7 FT SEAS
DOMINATE THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
E WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE FOUND AT
THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADES AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE CENTRAL BASIN THROUGH
THIS MORNING, THEN BECOME CONFINED TO THE SOUTH- CENTRAL BASIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD AGAIN TO
18N THU MORNING THROUGH SAT. EXPECT WINDS AT NEAR-GALE FORCE
OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS,
WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS LIKELY S OF 13.5N FRI NIGHT. PULSING FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS NIGHTLY THROUGH SAT NIGHT. FRESH TRADES WITH
ROUGH SEAS SHOULD PERSIST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH
EARLY THU MORNING, DIMINISHING TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
AFTERWARD.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N77.5W TO SAINT AGUSTIN, FLORIDA.
A SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 26.5N AND
BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. FARTHER EAST, AN UPPER- LEVEL LOW NEAR 28N65W
IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25.5N TO 29N
BETWEEN 62W AND 67W. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL
WAVES SECTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE NOTED
EAST OF FLORIDA, NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W. OTHERWISE, A
BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TO THE BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND
4 TO 7 FT SEAS NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 35W AND THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA, EXCEPT NW WINDS ADJACENT TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 09N TO 22N
BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
TRADES AND SEAS AT 7 TO 9 FT EXIST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W, GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO SE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR 34N46W EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
FLORIDA AND WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF NE FLORIDA
THROUGH THU, ALONG AND SE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE ROUGH ACROSS THE NW ZONES. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF 22N THROUGH THU
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
KRV
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