854
AXNT20 KNHC 250559
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC THU JUN 25 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0550 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM
02N TO 12N BETWEEN 29W AND 36W, AND FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 37W
AND 45W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 16N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD INTO PANAMA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 78W AND
84W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND AFRICA. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N14W
TO 07N24W TO 06N35W, THEN CONTINUES WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM
06N40W TO 04N51W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 04N TO
09N BETWEEN 13W AND 20W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT ARE ONGOING IN THE NE GULF. A 1018 MB
HIGH IS OFFSHORE LOUISINA AND EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
GULF, WHICH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS W OF
90W, GENTLE TO MODERATE E WINDS IN THE SE GULF, AND LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SLIGHT SEAS ARE BASIN-WIDE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND THU. A
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN DURING
THIS TIME, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS
PULSING OFF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NIGHTLY, AND
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NE GULF MON NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN A ROBUST TRADE-WIND
PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS IS SUSTAINING
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN THE E CARIBBEAN,
FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NE TO E WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN
ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS TO 12 FT, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING N
OF THE BASIN AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN THROUGH
TONIGHT, BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD AND COVERING THE ENTIRE
CENTRAL BASIN THU MORNING THROUGH SAT MORNING. EXPECT WINDS AT
NEAR-GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA
DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. ON FRI NIGHT, WINDS
OFF COLOMBIA WILL PEAK AT GALE-FORCE. PULSING FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS NIGHTLY THROUGH SAT NIGHT. FRESH TRADES WITH ROUGH
SEAS SHOULD PERSIST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH MIDDAY
THU, DIMINISHING TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS THEREAFTER THROUGH
SUN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS E
OF 71W AND IS SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER E TO SE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE W OF 71W AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N77W
TO 29N81W. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AHEAD AND ALONG
THE FRONT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS THROUGH
THU, ALONG AND SE OF A STALLED FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE ROUGH
ACROSS THE NW ZONES. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WITH LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE NORTHERN COASTS OF HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF 22N THROUGH FRI. A N TO S ALIGNED SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY FRI THROUGH LATE SAT, REACHING 70W SUN MORNING. THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS. LOOKING
AHEAD, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR NW ZONES
OFF OF NE FLORIDA MON NIGHT.
RAMOS
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