691
AXNT20 KNHC 251144
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC THU JUN 25 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING:
TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE NEAR 27N AND A
COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CAUSE TRADE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA TO PEAK AT
GALE- FORCE FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING. SEAS UNDER THESE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 12 AND 14 FT. PLEASE REFER TO
HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 34W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 02N TO 13N BETWEEN 31W AND 37W.
A EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 69W FROM EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN AT THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING WATERS SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 82W FROM NEAR THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN PANAMA. IT IS MOVING
WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED AT
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND
WATERS NEAR THE ISLAND OF THE YOUTH.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH STAYS MOSTLY INLAND AFRICA. AN ITCZ EXTENDS
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM JUST OFF GUINEA TO 07N33W, THEN CONTINUES
WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 06N37W TO NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF
FRENCH GUIANA AND BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN
NEAR THE FIRST ITCZ SEGMENT FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 15W AND 21W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT UP TO
90 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE SECOND ITCZ SEGMENT.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT CURVES NORTHWESTWARD FROM CEDAR KEY, FLORIDA
TO NEAR GULFPORT, LOUISIANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING JUST EAST OF NEW ORLEANS. AIDED BY
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT, A DIURNAL TROUGH IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. OTHERWISE, A 1017 MB HIGH SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS IS
DOMINATING MUCH OF THE GULF, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO 3
FT SEAS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. MODERATE TO
FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF
TODAY. OTHERWISE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THESE AREAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN DURING
THIS TIME, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS
PULSING OFF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NIGHTLY, AND
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN GULF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF MON NIGHT AND TUE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT AN UPCOMING GALE
WARNING.
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR CONVECTION IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE NEAR 27N CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A ROBUST TRADE-WIND REGIME FOR THE ENTIRE BASIN. FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FT DOMINATE THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND 3 TO 6 FT SEAS
ARE FOUND AT THE NORTHWESTERN AND PART OF THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN,
INCLUDING WATERS NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MODERATE TO FRESH E
WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 8 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS, AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN
THROUGH THIS MORNING, BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD AND COVERING THE
ENTIRE CENTRAL BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT MORNING. EXPECT
WINDS AT NEAR-GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. ON FRI
NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING, WINDS OFF COLOMBIA WILL PEAK AT GALE-
FORCE. PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NIGHTLY THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. FRESH TRADES WITH ROUGH SEAS SHOULD PERSIST EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY, DIMINISHING TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SEAS THEREAFTER THROUGH SUN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1016 MB LOW OFF THE
CAROLINAS COAST ACROSS 31N76W TO BEYOND PALM COAST, FLORIDA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVIDENT UP
TO 95 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
NEAR 31N64W IS ENHANCING THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 60W
AND 69W. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES
SECTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
THE BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE NEAR 27W IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS NORTH OF 22N AND WEST OF 65W, EXCEPT
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND
SOUTHERN GEORGIA. OTHERWISE, GENTLE WINDS AND 3 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE
ANTICIPATED NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 60W AND THE FLORIDA COAST.
FARTHER EAST, MODERATE ENE TO SE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE
NOTED NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 35W AND 65W. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
FROM 06N TO 22N BETWEEN 35W AND THE SOUTHWEST BAHAMAS/FLORIDA
COAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ENE TO E WINDS AND SEAS AT 6 TO
9 FT EXIST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WEST OF
35W, MAINLY GENTLE E TO SE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT
WILL TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS EAST
OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, A BROAD
RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 34N50W
ACROSS 31N61W TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WITH
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE NORTHERN COASTS OF
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THROUGH
FRI NIGHT. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF 22N THROUGH FRI. A NORTH-TO-
SOUTH ALIGNED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRI THROUGH LATE SAT,
REACHING 70W SUN MORNING. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND LEAD TO
DIMINISHING WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD INTO THE WATERS OFF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA MON NIGHT
CHAN
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